'20 different teams can win': Purdue favorite to claim NCAA Tournament

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Nov 7, 2025

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LAS VEGAS — Purdue has never won the NCAA Tournament, losing the national title game to UConn in 2024 and UCLA in 1969.

The betting public is banking on the Boilermakers to win it all this season.

Purdue is the consensus 8-1 favorite and money leader at BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and the Westgate SuperBook.

“The bettors are putting all their money and faith in Purdue,” Caesars Sportsbook college basketball trader Patrick Berbert said. “On paper, they have the best roster. Now we’ll see if they can complete their quest for a title on the court.”

Purdue had its title odds slashed in the offseason from 20-1 to +750 at Caesars, where the Boilermakers are the the book’s biggest liability. They are led by senior point guard Braden Smith, the +290 favorite to win the Wooden Award as the country’s best college basketball player.

“A lot of that has to do with the fact that he has a chance to break Bobby Hurley’s assists record this (season),” Berbert said.

Smith is a slight underdog (+130) at Caesars to set the men’s NCAA career assists mark.

Houston is the 8-1 co-favorite with Purdue at the Westgate and 10-1 second choice at Circa Sports after blowing a 12-point second-half lead in a 65-63 loss to Florida in last season’s national championship game.

“To me, the starting point is Houston,” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “They have the highest power rating to start.”

The only futures bet Salmons has made is Houston at 12-1.

“Just because I think Houston will easily make it to the Sweet 16,” he said. “If you make it that far, obviously you’ll have a chance.”

The Cougars are second in money and one of BetMGM’s largest liabilities. Kelvin Sampson, in his 12th season as Houston’s coach, earned the 800th win of his 37-year career Monday in the Cougars’ season-opening win over Lehigh.

“Kelvin Sampson is probably the best coach, if not definitely top three,” Berbert said. “He’s defensive-minded. His teams will always keep you in the game because of the type of defense the team plays.

“This team is going to be really good again, and it won’t surprise me if he gets back to another Final Four.”

Blue chips

UConn is the +950 second choice at Caesars, followed by Houston (10-1), Duke (13-1) and a quintet of teams at 16-1 in Kentucky, Florida, BYU, St. John’s and Michigan.

The Huskies’ bid for a third straight national title under coach Dan Hurley ended in a 77-75 loss to the Gators in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

“This team is definitely loaded,” Berbert said. “Dan Hurley is a top-five coach in college basketball and will definitely be in the mix to challenge (Purdue coach) Matt Painter for a title.”

Kentucky, which had its odds cut from 20-1 to 13-1 at BetMGM, is one of the most popular picks to win the title and one of the largest liabilities at MGM, Boomer’s and Caesars.

The Wildcats generated a lot of betting buzz when they beat top-ranked Purdue in an Oct. 24 exhibition game.

“We actually wrote a lot of Kentucky action when they knocked off Purdue,” Berbert said. “They started piling on Kentucky when they got that win.”

UCLA (30-1) is another popular pick at Boomer’s and STN Sports.

“With us, it’s been UCLA and Kentucky. They took 18-1 with Kentucky and 40-1 with UCLA,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “I can see where they’re coming from. (Kentucky coach Mark) Pope and (UCLA coach Mick) Cronin are both really good coaches, and that’s a good place to start.”

Biggest movers

San Diego State is the clear favorite to win the Mountain West and had its national title odds slashed from 250-1 to 80-1 at Caesars.

“The bettors are putting their faith in (coach) Brian Dutcher to have another great year for San Diego State,” Berbert said. “He’s more known for his defensive style. Whenever you have a good defense, it’s always enough to keep you in the game.”

The Westgate took $400 in wagers on UNLV to win the title at 2,000-1 odds.

“They take shots on all these teams,” Salmons said.

Illinois dropped from 100-1 at the Westgate to 30-1, Texas Tech went from 30-1 to 18-1, Florida from 25-1 to 10-1 and Michigan from 18-1 to 14-1.

“I don’t think you’re going to have a team run away. Twenty different teams can win,” Salmons said. “At the Super Bowl (Feb. 9), Florida was 75-1 to win it all. If you’re talking about 20 teams, they wouldn’t even have been listed.”