Analysis: Even after Eflin deal, Orioles have room for a frontline starter

Matt Weyrich, Baltimore Sun on Dec 30, 2025

Published in Baseball

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BALTIMORE — The Orioles’ one-year deal with Zach Eflin on Sunday ensured they will go into next season with a rotation of five quality starting pitchers and some capable depth behind them. As last year taught them, a team with World Series aspirations needs more than that.

Eflin, who re-signed for $10 million and a 2027 mutual option, is recovering from a lumbar microdiscectomy surgery he underwent in August, and his status for the start of the season remains uncertain. He won’t be relied on as a frontline pitcher like last year, when he took the ball on opening day as their de facto No. 1 starter. This time, the Orioles will look for him to fill a depth role and hope better health paves the way for a bounce-back season.

It’s why the Orioles are still very much in play for another starting pitcher acquisition, even after signing Eflin and trading a haul of prospects for right-hander Shane Baz.

Baltimore’s rotation currently consists of Eflin, Baz, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Dean Kremer. Tyler Wells is the top candidate for the No. 5 spot should Eflin begin the season on the injured list. With Grayson Rodriguez traded to Anaheim, the club’s other internal starting options are Cade Povich, Brandon Young and top pitching prospect Trey Gibson.

Bradish, Rogers and Baz are ensured rotation spots, all carrying varying degrees of front-of-the-rotation upside. Kremer has proved a reliable source of innings and would be a safe bet to remain a starter as well. But taking things slow with Eflin, who has missed time with lat and shoulder issues in addition to his back problems the past two years, and shifting Wells to the bullpen would clear the way for the Orioles to acquire a true No. 1 starter.

Wells probably deserves better. He looked sharp across his four starts in September after returning from 2024 elbow surgery. In his last full season two years ago, he posted a 3.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 25 games (20 starts). Yet he already had a checkered injury history before having elbow surgery and has thrown just 37 innings over the past two seasons. Leaning on Wells for a full starter’s workload right away would be a significant gamble.

This is also much bigger than him. What the Orioles are lacking, especially when compared with the rest of the American League East, is an ace. President of baseball operations Mike Elias recognized the Orioles’ offense needed a reliable bat and went hard after first baseman Pete Alonso, signing him to a five-year, $155 million deal. Elias disregarded positional fit and sought an upgrade by any means necessary.

Baltimore’s rotation would benefit from the same approach. The Orioles felt the loss of Corbin Burnes last season, both in terms of his caliber of pitching and the innings he provided. They have multiple candidates capable of similar impact, but no one with a track record they can count on like Burnes. Sure, adding a seventh starter might create a logjam if everyone is healthy at the same time. That’s a problem the 2025 Orioles would’ve loved to have.

The Orioles’ projected payroll sits nearly $13 million below last season’s opening day figure, according to Cot’s Contracts. A deal for any of the top starters still available in free agency — Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai — would push them over that number, something owner David Rubenstein has indicated he would be willing to do. They could also swing another trade for a rental like Tarik Skubal or Freddy Peralta, but that became less likely when they dipped into their farm system for Baz.

Starting pitching has long been a weakness for Baltimore. Since declaring “liftoff” in 2022, Elias has acquired Burnes, Eflin, Rogers, Baz, Kyle Gibson (twice), Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. That’s likely to continue with Rogers entering his walk year, Eflin likely to join him despite holding his mutual option and Kremer and Wells only a year behind them.

Short-term roster crunches pale in comparison to the Orioles’ long-term need for a reliable starter to anchor their rotation. Elias has demonstrated this winter that he has learned from the team’s underwhelming 2025 campaign and the previous offseason. In this new era in which the Orioles are flexing financial muscle and operating as one of the most aggressive teams on the market, roster fit be damned.

An ace is still theirs for the taking.