Hurricane center keeps chances high for an Atlantic tropical depression

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Sep 15, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Monday bumped up again its forecast chances that a tropical wave in the Atlantic would develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the wave in the central tropical Atlantic was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“The disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC’s forecast area of formation has it steered away from the Caribbean and likely headed into the open ocean.

The NHC gave it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days, but a 80% chance to develop in the next seven days, up from the 20% and 70% forecast Sunday.

If it were to develop into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was on Sept. 10. but 60% of annual activity has historically happened after this date, the NHC stated.

So far the season has had only six named storms with the most recent, Tropical Storm Fernand, petering out by the end of August.

Only one of the six storms developed into a hurricane, Hurricane Erin, which grew into a massive Category 5 system with 160 mph winds but remained in the Atlantic without making landfall.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in early August updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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