Hurricane center says system could move across Florida, develop in Gulf

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jul 15, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday a system off Florida’s Atlantic coast remains disorganized, but could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm after it moves over land and into the Gulf this week.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, the low pressure area that has been drenching the state with rounds of showers and thunderstorms early this week remains centered just offshore along the northeast coast.

“This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves acrossthe northeastern and north-central Gulf.”

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week,” forecasters said. “Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week.”

If it does develop into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Dexter.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said the system could drop up to 4.5 inches in certain parts of Central Florida through Wednesday, although most of the region is forecast to see about 1 inch of rain.

“While everywhere will not see continuous rain all day, forecast trends expect widespread coverage of showers and storms (~80-90%) with some areas seeing multiple rounds,” according to the NWS forecaster’s discussion

Minor flooding could hit some low lying and poor drainage areas while there is a small chance for some stronger storms to bring wind gusts of 40-50 mph, the NWS stated.

As the system moves west, moisture will remain into Wednesday.

The state was previously doused by rains associated with what developed into Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month. That storm ended up striking the Carolina coast and dumped flooding rains inland.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had before the start of hurricane season forecast an expected 13 to 19 named storms for the year, of which 6-10 would grow into hurricanes. Three to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Researchers out of Colorado State University this week, though, updated their forecast saying they expect the season to be slightly less busy than what they had predicted earlier this year.

Hurricane season runs June 1-Nov. 30.

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