U.S. car and truck sales remained strong between April and June despite policy upheaval under the new Trump administration. But analysts predict a wave of panic buying this spring will lead to a chilly market later this year.

Looming over a healthy first half of the year are pricey import taxes and the potential loss of several tax incentives that helped grow the fledgling U.S. electric vehicle industry.

Tariffs are likely to affect more vehicles on dealer lots in the coming months, and demand could wane after consumers rushed to make purchases in anticipation of higher prices, said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist and director of industry insights at Cox Automotive Inc., a dealer digital services provider.

The surge of spring car buying "is now in the rearview mirror," Chesbrough said at a recent roundtable.

"The impact of tariffs have not yet been felt, and that will change in the second half of this year," Chesbrough said. "We expect the sales pace to slow as fewer summer buyers remain after a frenzied spring, and the high prices and tightened inventory grows as a headwind in the fall."

The uncertainty, Chesbrough said, is what will happen to unemployment, cost of living and consumer sentiment as the year continues.

“What we just don't know is whether the demand is going to hold up and whether the broader impact of these tariffs is going to start to hit consumers and their willingness and desire to buy a new vehicle,” Chesbrough said. “If it doesn't, and the demand still stays, we may see a situation where we're going to constrain supply, and a lot of consumers want to buy these vehicles. That's going to work very well for the dealers out there, but if that consumer demand doesn’t hold up, then it may be more difficult.”

GM leads on EVs, but turmoil ahead

Another market-altering factor is the likely end to electric vehicle tax credits. President Donald Trump and his allies have signaled for months that they plan to eliminate all credits for the eco-friendly powertrain, and they are close to achieving that goal.

Most notably, a $7,500 credit for qualifying new EVs is now slated to expire at the end of September in Congressional Republicans’ massive tax and spending bill, which passed the U.S. Senate Tuesday. The expiration is more sudden than past versions of the bill, though the date is still subject to change as lawmakers hammer out a final agreement.

The resulting outlook for the EV market is unclear, Cox Automotive industry insights Director Stepehanie Valdez Streaty said during a mid-year review last week.

If the Senate version of the bill becomes law, buyers looking to make the switch to electric will have less than three months to cash in on incentives. The fast-approaching deadline, she said, could trigger a "rush" akin to the surge in purchases ahead of tariff pricing.

The long-term effects, according to Valdez-Streaty, could be less favorable for the nascent EV market. "This looming expiration could dampen consumer enthusiasm and slow the pace of adoption, especially among price-sensitive buyers," she said.

With the new model EV credit still available in the first half of 2025, the Detroit Three posted mixed results on all-electric vehicles.

General Motors Co. was far and away the Motor City leader in EVs. Year-over-year sales jumped 111% in the second quarter, with the Chevrolet Equinox EV — among the most affordable electric crossovers — leading deliveries.

Sales of Ford Motor Co.'s meager all-electric model options fell 31% in the second quarter, though hybrids grew 24% for a record "electrified" sales first half of the year.

Stellantis NV started launching EVs more recently, and they have yet to gain any momentum, though its plug-in hybrids have long been popular and benefited from the tax credits.

"As with any market in transition," Valdez Streaty said, "it's important to remember that electrification is not a straight line."

A strong start

Stellantis sales fell 10% — its eighth-straight quarter of sales declines. But the automaker is showing signs of life, with its flagship Jeep and Ram brands making small sales gains in the quarter thanks to the popularity of flagship vehicles like the Wrangler SUV and Ram 1500 pickup. The company plans to continue offering its employee pricing for all deals for at least another month, which dealers said have helped its recent sales recovery efforts.

Despite strong overall showings, growth tapered among automakers in the second quarter.

Toyota Motor Corp.'s sales were up more than 7% for the quarter, but its June sales were flat year-over-year. Kia Corp. posted an all-time first-half sales record, though in June its sales were slightly lower than a year earlier. It was a similar story for Hyundai Motor Co., which also posted record first-half results that were up 10%, but June sales were just 3% higher.

Mazda Motor Corp's sales are up 3.9% in 2025, but down 6.5% in June. And sales of Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. vehicles, meanwhile, were about level through the first half of this year, but in the second quarter alone, they dropped more than 6%.

Ford sales overall rose 14% between April and June compared to the same time last year, and the Dearborn automaker delivered 182,461 vehicles in June, a 9.6% increase year-over-year. But that was more tepid growth than the more than 16% increases seen in April and May when totals surpassed 200,000 vehicles.

"It's June that stands out. It's really the laggard of the three months," said Ivan Drury, director of insights at vehicle information site Edmunds.com Inc. That slowing sales momentum comes as "consumer hesitation" starts to take hold in the wider economy, he said, with the impacts of tariffs on prices becoming clearer for many consumers.

GM did not release monthly sales numbers. But compared to nearly 17% sales growth in the first three months of the year, the 7% hike in the second quarter is less impressive.

"The industry sales pace is normalizing after stronger than expected industry sales in April and May," according to a GM release.

Jeff Laethem, general manager at Ray Laethem Buick GMC in Detroit, said customers have cited tariffs for their timing of a vehicle purchase in recent months, but it wasn’t so “drastic” that it has him worried for the coming months: “It just got really busy for a period of time.”

The biggest impact has been lower inventory levels. He has 13 Buicks on his lot, and he sold 48 last month. He has more vehicles being shipped from Asia, but it’s harder to know when they will arrive. He likened the supply to what it was like during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the demand isn’t the same.

“We don’t have that radical amount of cash ready to spend out there,” Laethem said. “There was a lot of money chasing fewer goods. Now there’s scared money chasing fewer goods.”

Car shoppers are now in "wait and see" mode when it comes to tariffs and the potential for hefty price increases. Drury said some who have put off purchasing a new vehicle for a while are likely thinking: what's a few months longer?

Stellantis dealers, burned by poor sales last year, remain hopeful the Italian-owned automaker will build momentum.

The employee pricing discounts offered by companies like Ford and Stellantis offered advantages because they gave buyers confidence as they were inundated with uncertainty, new information and questions.

“When consumers are hearing all about these tariffs: Where's my car even made? Does my car that I'm looking at face tariffs? I don't even worry about that because I've got a set price.” Chesbrough said. "That simple message really worked well.”

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