12 million US births expected over 17 years never happened, experts say. Why?

Irene Wright, Miami Herald on Sep 16, 2025

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At the end of 2007, the country, and eventually the world, fell into what would later be called the Great Recession.

The economically and socially turbulent time in the United States saw the American Dream changing as the housing market crashed and unemployment hit its highest rate in decades in 2009.

Before this point, as women reached the age to want and have children, they did. Then, something changed.

A new analysis from the University of New Hampshire found that despite there being 4 million more women of “prime child-bearing age” in 2024 compared to 2006, 7 million fewer women were giving birth, according to the Sept. 3 report.

Here’s what to know.

11.8 million missing births

In 2024, there were 44.2 million women between the ages of 20 and 39, Kenneth Johnson, demographer and professor at the Carsey School of Public Policy, wrote. More than half, 52%, of those women had yet to give birth.

However, if the fertility patterns from before the Great Recession had continued, experts would have predicted that 5.7 million of those women would have had children. The reality was that they chose a different path.

Trends predicted 4.4 million more women would have had two children, and 1.3 million more women would have had one child, according to the report.

That means that over 17 years, there were 11.8 million fewer babies than expected across the United States, Johnson wrote.

“In 2024, there were 10 percent more women aged 20 to 39 than in 2006, but the share who had never had a child was up by 45%,” Johnson said.

The demographer noted that some women who elected to not have children may still do so later, but the “substantial rise in the proportion of childless women suggests that some will forego children” entirely, according to the report.

Fertility rates at record lows

The demographer said “early expectations” after the Great Recession were that some of the uncertainty would have been “made up” by women in the years after, according to the report.

“Yet, 17 years after this turbulence began with the onset of the Great Recession, fertility rates remain near record lows, and the number of childless women continues to rise,” Johnson said.

Fertility rates decreased only mildly for women in their 30s but did increase slightly in women ages 35 to 49, according to the report.

These small gains among older mothers were not enough, however, to offset the loss of births in the younger cohort, the report said.

“In addition to the Great Recession and COVID, changing social, demographic, economic and cultural factors also influenced attitudes about fertility, marriage and children,” Johnson wrote. “These include great educational and employment opportunities for women, the rapid increase in housing costs, the growing expense of children, limited access to child care and family leave, and changing patterns of cohabitation and immigration.”

Johnson said the lower fertility rate also matches a lower marriage rate because fertility rates in women who have never been married were lower than those who are married or have been in the past, according to the report.

“However, the number of married women who have not had a child is also higher than expected given historical trends,” Johnson wrote.

‘Demographic cliff’

Johnson says this change in fertility is directly contributing to the “widely discussed” theory of the “demographic cliff.”

As the post-Great Recession demographic gets older, it is going to be considerably smaller than the generations that came before, first reflected in a sudden drop of college students, NPR reported.

This is the first year the impact of the missing generation is being felt, according to the outlet, as children born in 2006 or 2007 are starting college.

“The critical question is what kind of impact this will have on society,” Johnson said in a Sept. 16 news release from the University of New Hampshire.

“While it’s possible women who are currently delaying having children may still have them, the substantial rise in the proportion of childless women contributes to something called the ‘demographic cliff’ where the decision to not have children could have significant implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses and eventually for the labor force.”

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