Mortgage rates could briefly drop below 6 percent in 2026 which could unlock parts of the Las Vegas Valley housing market, according to a new forecast.

Lending Tree’s 2026 Housing and Economic Predictions report expects mortgage rates to drop into the 5 percent range sometime next year, something that has not happened since 2022. Freddie Mac currently has the 30-year fixed-term mortgage rate at 6.1 percent, and the overall rate has not dropped below 6 percent since 2022.

A mortgage rate drop to under 6 percent could bring an uptick in sales and listings locally, according to Lending Tree’s chief consumer finance analyst, Matt Schulz, one of the authors of the report.

“Few housing markets have seen as many ups and downs over the years as Las Vegas has, but I think 2026 will present an opportunity for Vegas residents who are stuck with high-rate mortgages,” he said. “I think mortgage rates will fall below 6 percent, even if just briefly, leading to a rise in refinancing in Las Vegas. Americans love round numbers, so I think we’ll see a significant jump in refinancings in Vegas and the rest of the country as well.”

Next year could be the end of a rate cutting cycle for the Federal Reserve, said local mortgage advisor Matt Hennessy, who said this could give the market a sense of stability, which would in turn potentially drop rates for local homeowners and buyers. The feds begun cutting rates in September of 2024 after a period of inflation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“It doesn’t hurt that the fed’s policy path is becoming increasingly locked in,” he said. “As far as markets are concerned, we’ll only see one more rate cut by early 2026. We’ve been homing in on this realization for several years, and especially over the past three months.”

Lending Tree’s report outlines six predictions for the next year and mortgage rates are atop the list. Second is a new Federal Reserve chairman, which will be appointed by President Donald Trump, who will push to lower rates further, which could, indirectly impact mortgage rates.

Schulz said unfortunately, 2026 will be an unpredictable year for the U.S. economy and the overall real estate industry, and that once again, consumer sentiment will remain at an all-time low.

“The unfortunate reality is that there are a lot of forces at play that you can’t do anything about,” he said. “That’s always been true and will always be true.”

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