John Romano: With his deal winding down, should the Buccaneers invest in Baker Mayfield?

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on Jan 7, 2026

Published in Football

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TAMPA, Fla. — The romance may have hit a snag. Nothing egregious or irreparable, mind you.

Something more along the lines of a prenup problem.

At this time a year ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had totally bought into the promise of Baker Mayfield. He was one-third of the way into a three-year, $100 million contract, and general manager Jason Licht would soon be talking about the possibility of extending his deal well beyond the 2026 season.

Even six games into 2025, it appeared Mayfield was boosting his next paystub with every fourth-quarter comeback.

But then came the injuries, followed by a crash in the standings and, today, a less-certain path forward for Mayfield and the Bucs.

Does the team reward Mayfield for revitalizing the locker room, taking the Bucs to back-to-back division titles and finishing second in the NFL in touchdown passes in 2024? Or is ownership fretting about how the Bucs went 3-8 down the stretch in 2025 with Mayfield throwing 14 touchdown passes compared to 10 interceptions while posting a sickly 80.6 passer rating over the season’s final three months?

In other words, with one season remaining on his contract, are the Bucs still eager to re-sign Mayfield this offseason?

For the most part, good quarterbacks do not reach free agency in the NFL. Most never even get close. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford all signed their current deals while they still had two years remaining on their old contracts. Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Jordan Love all had one year remaining when they agreed to new extensions.

When you get a franchise quarterback in the building, you almost always do whatever it takes to keep him away from the exits.

Since 2020, there have been only three free-agent QBs to switch teams with deals in excess of $100 million. There was Sam Darnold with the Seahawks, Kirk Cousins with the Falcons and Derek Carr with the Saints. Two of those deals were absolute disasters.

Otherwise, the free-agent market is littered with once-great quarterbacks near the ends of their careers (like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and a guy named Tom Brady) or one-time high draft picks seeking a fresh start (Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota).

Which brings us back to the question of Mayfield.

Like other high draft picks who were not re-signed after their rookie contracts, Mayfield had to reestablish himself in the NFL with a prove-it contract in Tampa Bay for $4 million in 2023. He did that spectacularly in his first season with the Bucs and then upped the ante with a career year in 2024.

But the drop-off in 2025 complicates the math.

There’s no doubt the Bucs would still like Mayfield moving forward, but at what price? Do they consider him one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league? Because those guys average more than $50 million a year. Or is Mayfield a middle-tier QB, who makes in the $33 to $45 million range?

Do you risk ticking your quarterback off with a lower offer coming off a disappointing season, or do you roll the dice by allowing him to play out the final year of his contract so both sides have a clearer picture of his value?

Given the possibility of a franchise tag next season, it’s not as if Mayfield will automatically hop on a plane if the Bucs fail to re-sign him in the coming months. Dallas and Baltimore used franchise tags on Prescott (in 2020) and Lamar Jackson (in 2023) before coming to terms on longer extensions.

But, again, the franchise tag has a risk of its own. For quarterbacks in 2026, the tag is set at $47.3 million according to spotrac.com. By the time the Bucs might consider it with Mayfield, the tag would likely be more than $50 million for one year.

Here’s the issue for the Bucs:

Mayfield is an absolute commodity. He’s adored in the locker room, he’s popular in the community and he’s carried teams to the playoffs three times in the last six years with a 2-3 record. That’s more playoff appearances than Burrow and more playoff wins than Prescott in the same time frame.

But his reckless style of play leads to lingering injuries, and he’s thrown more interceptions than any other quarterback in the league since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2018.

He’s certainly a high-value player, but is he break-the-bank valuable? And, beyond the cash it would cost the Glazers, what would an oversized contract do to the team’s salary cap?

The safest route might be waiting to see where the 2026 season takes Mayfield and the Bucs.

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