The National Football League is many things — a multibillion-dollar entertainment juggernaut, a litigious bully, and a weekly soap opera where grown men in tights fight over an oblong ball.

But mostly, the NFL is a league of desperation.

And because of that, despite it being mid-December, the speculation has already started about this offseason’s impending quarterback carousel.

And everyone is looking at the San Francisco 49ers with hungry eyes.

They want Mac Jones.

The Niners trading Jones to a desperate team has been discussed so early and so frequently that some might presume it’s a foregone conclusion: he’s gone at the end of the year.

I don’t see it that way.

Here is the thing about the 49ers that seems to have been forgotten or ignored:

The 49ers love — absolutely love — compensatory picks. They can’t get enough of them. They crave them. They view the comp pick formula not as a league rule, but as a religious text. And right now, Jones is a walking, talking, clipboard-holding third-round pick.

Jones’ work this season has been fantastic; a masterclass in reputation rehabilitation. The Shanahan Shine is already on him.

So if the Niners let him play out his contract, shake his hand, and watch him sign a solid $20-to-$30 (maybe $40) million-dollar deal elsewhere in free agency come the end of the 2026 season, the league office will essentially FedEx a third-round pick (fourth at worst) to Santa Clara.

That’s money in the bank. That’s a free lottery ticket.

More importantly, it’s the best insurance policy in the game, and it costs next to nothing to own, with a nice dividend payout, to boot.

Why on earth would the 49ers trade that certainty for a third or fourth-round pick this spring? To be nice? To help a “trade partner” out? Please. This isn’t a charity.

If any team in professional sports understands the terrifying fragility of the quarterback position, it is the 49ers. They have lived the nightmare. They have started games with some real randos over the last 10 years under Kyle Shanahan.

Yes, Brock Purdy is a star. Yes, he is the franchise. But let’s not pretend the guy is made of titanium. Purdy has exactly one fully healthy season on his résumé. One. In a league in which pass rushers are built like Marvel villains, betting a Super Bowl window on him playing all 17 and then some isn’t a strategy; it’s negligence.

You don’t sell your fire extinguisher because your house probably won’t burn down this year.

Jones is that fire extinguisher — you wait until his expiration date to replace him.

So, where does that leave the frantic GMs trying to save their jobs?

It leaves them staring at a price tag that will make them gag.

If other teams want Jones, they’ll have to come with a Godfather offer. You have to put the Niners in a position where keeping him would actually be irresponsible.

What does that look like? It looks like a really, really good second-round pick — top 50. And then you add a sweetener. Maybe a third-rounder next year. Perhaps a player who can actually contribute.

No matter what, you have to overpay. You have to cover the quarterback opportunity cost for the Niners.

And the right team has to do it.

What is the right team? It’s an AFC team. It’s a team the Niners could only see in the playoffs if it’s the Super Bowl.

Do you think San Francisco is going to hand quarterback competency to the Minnesota Vikings?

Are they going to gift-wrap a solution for the Arizona Cardinals?

I don’t think so. Why help the Vikings or Cardinals or any other NFC team get better when you can watch them flounder in quarterback purgatory for another decade?

If a desperate team only needed to give up a mid-round pick for Jones, it’d be a great deal. He’s smart, accurate, reads the field well, and throws on time. He can run an NFL offense. He’s competent.

But if you have to give up a top-50 pick for Jones, you suddenly notice he can’t move, can’t throw deep, and is banged up a lot himself.

Now it doesn’t sound so enticing. Maybe you go with a rookie or Trey Lance or something — that’s an easier sell and a cheaper buy.

So, is anyone actually going to do it? Is a team desperate enough to offer the Niners something wildly better than the guaranteed comp pick they already have in their pocket?

I’m not betting on it.

The 49ers hold all the cards, all the chips, and the best backup quarterback in the league. They should be perfectly content to sit back, watch the chaos, and keep their insurance policy right where he belongs — on their sideline, wearing a headset, ready to save the season if disaster strikes.

Then again, the offseason is so long that it’s started early for many teams, and the desperation is only just beginning.

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