Sometimes the chaos of the NFL hands you exactly what you need when you’re busy doing absolutely nothing.

The San Francisco 49ers spent last week on their couches, resting and watching RedZone, only to see the football gods — and the Philadelphia Eagles — part the Red Sea for them.

The Eagles lost. The path to the NFC’s No. 1 seed, once a mathematical fever dream, is suddenly a very paved, very real road.

(Who could have seen that coming?)

The door is wide open for the Niners. But before anyone starts booking hotels for Santa Clara … But before anyone extrapolates out too far, let’s be adults about this.

The path might be cleaner, but the hiking boots still need to be laced up.

The hard part of earning the No. 1 seed isn’t getting help; it’s the 49ers actually winning their final four games.

And while those games don’t look nearly as daunting as they did just a few weeks ago — the Niners should be favored in all four — it’s not as if these Niners are an undeniable juggernaut.

Not in their state.

You can parse DVOA and EPA per play all you want, but as I see it, the reality for San Francisco down the stretch is much simpler. There is a formula for success: a rigid, non-negotiable formula.

It’s the only way the Niners can take advantage of the home-field advantage the rest of the NFC seems keen to give them:

Four offensive touchdowns and a defensive turnover.

That’s it.

Hammer this phrase into your mind now, because it’s going to dictate the next month (plus) of your life.

The 49ers need to score four touchdowns on offense and generate one takeaway on defense every single week.

Why? Because this isn’t the suffocating defense of 2019. It’s not even the swarm of 2023. Let’s call a spade a spade: This year’s defensive unit is patchwork. It can be adequate at its best.

They might be able to hold the Titans to fewer than two touchdowns, but the playoff-caliber teams down the stretch and in the tournament? Not a chance. And there will be games where they will be gashed. They are certainly going to give up yards.

But if they can rip the ball out once — just register one singular, momentum-swinging turnover per game — that is all this offense should need.

“Winning shootouts” sounds derogatory, but that is the assignment. The offense has to be elite. It has to be the engine, the navigator and the finisher.

In the modern NFL, 28 points (assuming the kicker does his job, which is a whole other question) plus a stolen possession is going to win you a hell of a lot of football games.

And they are going to need every point down the stretch.

First, you have the Tennessee Titans. And Cam Ward, the No. 1 overall pick, looks like the truth. He is slippery, he is confident and he has that “I don’t know that I shouldn’t be winning this game” energy that ruins contenders’ seasons. Plucky is dangerous. Plucky requires a superior team to remove all doubt on the power dynamics early, lest the Titans get any ideas.

Then comes Week 16. The Indianapolis Colts. A road game. Prime time. And who is waiting for them? Potentially “Big Philly” himself, Philip Rivers. Yes, he is 44 years old. Yes, he probably moves with the turning radius of a cruise ship. But he is still a gunslinger and a Hall of Famer, and who knows, he might be rested enough to do just enough to ruin Christmas.

No matter what, the Colts are going to have possible Offensive Player of the Year Jonathan Taylor running downhill against a porous run defense. And defense coordinator Lou Anarumo — the mad scientist who gives quarterbacks nightmares — isn’t a pushover, either.

If you survive that, the Niners will face the Chicago Bears. You want to talk about a track meet? The Bears have the kind of offensive firepower that looks at the Niners’ secondary and sees an all-you-can-eat buffet. If the Niners don’t hit the benchmark — four touchdowns, one turnover — the Bears will.

And finally, the hoss battle. Week 18 against the Seattle Seahawks.

We have to say it: The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFL right now. Sam Darnold might not have beaten his rap as a turnover machine, but he can beat the Niners.

And this isn’t just a rivalry game; it’s a heavyweight title fight, with potentially the NFC West belt (and a first-round bye) on the line.

I don’t want to face the Seahawks’ incredible defense under any circumstances.

Under those circumstances? The Niners better come correct.

So, how do the 49ers survive? How do they run the table?

Four touchdowns. One turnover.

The Niners have the personnel to do it. They have the coaching. They just need the execution. The defense doesn’t need to be perfect; it just needs to be opportunistic. Bend, bend, bend, but steal the ball once.

Is it doable? Absolutely.

Now they have to do it. That’s the hard part.

If they stick to the formula — if they embrace the shootout and trust their firepower — they won’t just sneak into the playoffs. They will kick the door down. They will enter the tournament as the hottest, most battle-tested team in the bracket. A team that stared down the No. 1 pick, a prime-time road test, a Bears track meet and the NFL’s best defense.

They’ll be the humming-on-all-cylinders team that no one will want to play.

And boy, will they have earned that week off.

As long as the Niners can manage four touchdowns and a turnover, anything is possible this winter.

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