Mark Story: Who is 'winning' the breakup between Kentucky and John Calipari? You'll be surprised.

Mark Story, Lexington Herald-Leader on Jan 30, 2026

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LEXINGTON, Ky. — Seeking to evaluate who has “won the breakup” in the professional divorce that tore asunder the basketball union of Kentucky and John Calipari leads to a surprising conclusion.

With the Wildcats set to face their former coach for the second time in his role as Arkansas head man when UK visits Fayetteville on Saturday, it is an ideal moment to analyze how Kentucky and Calipari have each fared since they broke up two years ago.

A game of compare and contrast using a series of hoops metrics suggests that, so far, the records of UK and Cal are amazingly in synch.

— Total wins: Going into Saturday evening’s meeting at Bud Walton Arena, Kentucky is 48-19 overall since Mark Pope replaced Calipari prior to the 2024-25 season.

Meanwhile, Arkansas is — wait for it — 48-19 since hiring Calipari.

— SEC wins: In Southeastern regular season contests since the start of 2024-25, Kentucky is 15-11; Arkansas is 14-12.

— SEC Tournament wins: Since Calipari exited Kentucky, the Wildcats are 1-1 in the league tourney.

Since Calipari signed on with Arkansas, the Razorbacks are 1-1 in the league tourney.

— NCAA Tournament victories: Post-Calipari, UK is 2-1 in March Madness; with Calipari, the Hogs are 2-1 in March Madness.

— McDonald’s All-Americans signed: Since Pope began running the UK men’s hoops program, the Wildcats have brought in three Mickey D’s AAs: two, Brandon Garrison and Jayden Quaintance, from the transfer portal and one, Malachi Moreno, directly from high school.

Since Calipari took his formidable recruiting skill to Fayetteville, Arkansas has brought in five McDonald’s All-Americans: Boogie Fland, Karter Knox, D.J. Wagner (transfer portal), Meleek Thomas and Darius Acuff.

Conclusion: It is fairly stunning how similarly Kentucky’s and Calipari’s results have tracked since their “conscious uncoupling” after 15 seasons (2009 through 2024) together.

One important category is an exception: In head-to-head meetings, it is Calipari 1, Kentucky 0.

Coming off a horrid showing in an 80-55 loss at Vanderbilt on Tuesday night, Pope’s Cats will get another shot against the former Wildcats head man when Kentucky (14-7, 5-3 SEC) plays at No. 15 Arkansas (16-5, 6-2 SEC) Saturday.

Whether fairly or not, a not-inconsiderable portion of the UK fan base came to believe there was not enough emphasis on “Kentucky” in Calipari’s one-and-done heavy, NBA draft-focused administration of UK men’s basketball.

For that segment of fans, last season’s game with Arkansas was an Armageddon. Those Kentucky backers yearned for Pope and the Wildcats to utilize that first head-to-head meeting to show Cal that he was not bigger than Kentucky basketball.

Instead, Calipari brought a razor-sharp game plan to Lexington. Kentucky had no defensive matchup for Arkansas forward Adou Thiero. Calipari put the ex-Cat into isolation sets, and Thiero responded by scoring 20 points.

Overall, the five former UK players and/or signees that suited up for Arkansas at Rupp Arena last year combined to score 63 of the Razorbacks’ 89 points.

Afterward, given reason to gloat, Calipari did not. There was no sight of “Swaggy Cal.” He handled the defeat of his former team with grace.

For all the big wins Calipari had in Lexington, there’s a case to be made that the Arkansas vanquishing of Kentucky last season was his most impressive moment within the confines of Rupp Arena.

I haven’t done a scientific survey, but I don’t sense the levels of angst and anticipation around “Cats vs. Calipari II” among UK backers that there was last year.

That may largely come from a lack of optimism over the outcome, as Kentucky has had a wildly uneven season and has seen three of its expected top five players sidelined by injuries.

Meanwhile, No. 15 Arkansas is the highest-ranked SEC team in the current AP Top 25.

Even with the head-to-head loss, Pope had a better overall year one at Kentucky in 2024-25 than Calipari had at Arkansas — more total wins (24-22); more SEC wins (10 to eight); and more wins against ranked opponents (eight to five).

So far, Calipari has had the better year two over UK.

Taking the big-picture view, Pope’s challenging season to date fits a persistent pattern for Kentucky coaches of the modern era. Of the seven men who have coached UK since Adolph Rupp retired in 1972, six — all but Rick Pitino — have faced challenging year twos.

In a sense, whatever level of success Calipari enjoys at Arkansas is not a reflection on UK or the Wildcats fans who wanted a fresh start.

For whatever reason, the Calipari era at UK had reached a point of diminishing returns. The coach’s final four seasons yielded a 9-16 mark (2020-21); an NCAA Tournament loss to a No. 15 seed (2021-22); a round of 32 exit; and a March Madness defeat to a No. 14 seed.

The answer to the question of who is winning the breakup between Kentucky and Calipari, is that, presently, it has essentially been a tie.