PHILADELPHIA — All three of the top candidates running to represent Philadelphia in Congress have reasons to be confident heading into the final month of campaigning.

Which is to say: All three have reasons to be fearful.

After months of the Democratic contenders glad-handing, fundraising, and advertising, the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans is down to its final five weeks ahead of the May 19 primary election.

The three front-runners are all jockeying to say that they have the momentum. But ultimately, the campaign — and the 3rd Congressional District seat — will come down to who can energize voters to cast a ballot. The primary is likely to be decisive, as no Republican filed to run and the district is one of the bluest in the nation.

“This election, like virtually every election these days, is a function of turnout,” said George R. Burrell, a former City Council member and ex-mayoral candidate. “This is clearly a different environment with the frustration and anger with [President Donald] Trump, and you don’t know how that will motivate voters.”

State Sen. Sharif Street believes he is building momentum by amassing support from elected Democrats in every corner of the district. He is the former head of the state party and backed by the Democratic City Committee. And he is increasingly seen as the favorite to be endorsed by Mayor Cherelle L. Parker, who is expected to announce her pick on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, State Rep. Chris Rabb has solidified himself as the choice of the city’s left flank, which has proved energized and organized for the better part of a decade. He won backing on Monday from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC — a group of top progressives in Congress — and he has a bevy of grassroots groups on his side.

But it is physician Ala Stanford, a first-time candidate well-known for her efforts to vaccinate thousands of Philadelphians during the COVID-19 pandemic, whose message has reached a wide swath of voters on the airwaves.

For the last five weeks, 314 Action Fund, a Washington-based political action committee, has aired pro-Stanford advertising on television, on the radio, and online. The group, which boosts “pro-science” candidates across the nation, has spent more than $2 million on the effort, and no other candidate’s message has been on TV thus far.

The group believes the spending is working.

A recent poll that 314 Action Fund commissioned and provided to The Inquirer found that Stanford is leading the field at 28%. The survey of about 600 likely primary voters was conducted by Public Policy Polling, and it showed Rabb at 23%, while Street came in at 16%.

Respondents to the poll were disproportionately white and young compared with the district’s population as a whole, which could partly explain Street’s position. His base is largely Black voters.

To be sure, 314 Action Fund would not have circulated the results if they were not positive for Stanford. But there has been little other polling of the race made public thus far to compare it to.

In December, Street’s campaign released a poll that found he was running at the head of the pack at that time, logging 22% of support compared with Rabb at 17% and Stanford at 11%.

Anthony Campisi, a spokesperson for Street, said the campaign suspected that 314 Action Fund spent money on television advertising early in the race “so they could come out with a poll showing a lead and artificially generate momentum.”

“We will see how that shakes out when other spenders begin making investments and communicating directly with voters,” Campisi said. “The fact remains that we’re really happy with where we are in the race.”

It’s unclear who those other spenders will be.

Street is endorsed by the Philadelphia Building and Construction Trades Council, a coalition of labor unions led by Ryan N. Boyer that has in the past financed independent expenditure groups to support its preferred political candidates. On Saturday, Boyer’s son, Ryan Boyer Jr., filed paperwork to form a new federal PAC, but that group has yet to air ads.

Rabb is also backed by national progressive groups that could spend money to influence the race, but have yet to do so. Those include the left-leaning Working Families Party and Justice Democrats, a group that helped lift U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., to office.

Alon Gur, Rabb’s campaign manager, said in a statement that Rabb is “gaining momentum,” and that he was within striking distance of the leaders in both of the polls that have been made public.

“Whichever way the insiders go, we are coalescing the progressive lane in this race,” he said. “It will be close, and we know we can win.”

Stanford’s campaign did not comment on the 314 poll. Under federal law, candidates are barred from coordinating directly with super PACs supporting their bid.

Janeé Taft-Mack, Stanford’s campaign manager, said in a statement that “voters across Philadelphia want a fresh voice in Congress, not a career Harrisburg politician.”

Throughout the race, Stanford has emphasized her outsider status. But that political inexperience could matter in the final five weeks as more voters begin to tune in ahead of Election Day.

“For Stanford, the spotlight’s about to get a lot brighter,” said J.J. Balaban, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist. “Can she perform under the hot lights when this is someone who has basically no political experience before she got into the race?”

Balaban pointed out that Rabb, who in 2016 challenged an incumbent to win his seat in the state House, is the only candidate who has won competitive elections. And he said that, for Street, having the support of the leaders of the Democratic Party could carry its own risks.

“Street is the candidate of the Democratic establishment at a time when, arguably, the Democratic establishment has never been less popular,” he said.

But Burrell, a longtime aide to Street’s father, former Mayor John F. Street, said the Democratic City Committee and its hundreds of neighborhood-based party members can tap into the broadest base of Philadelphia primary voters.

“The structure can turn out voters more than any other in town,” Burrell said. “If those voters are listening.”

©2026 The Philadelphia Inquirer, LLC. Visit at inquirer.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.