Democrats are battling Republicans for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and two special congressional elections in Florida that are shaping up as surprising early tests of President Donald Trump’s second term political clout.

With signs of GOP political weakness spreading, Democrats are hoping to hold onto a liberal-controlled spot on the divided court in swing-state Wisconsin on Tuesday and perhaps pull off a huge upset in one of two deep-red Florida districts where voters are also going to the polls.

Trump himself signaled unusual public concern Friday about the unfriendly political climate when he admitted he withdrew his nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik for U.N. ambassador over worries about losing the seat if she left it vacant.

The president carried Stefanik’s rural North Country district by about 20% in November, meaning holding it should not normally be a big worry for the GOP.

“We don’t want to take any chances. It’s Politics 101,” Trump told reporters Friday at an unrelated White House event. “We were probably going to win. But the word ‘probably’ is no good.”

Although headline writers have recently focused on Democratic dysfunction, Republicans are the party in power and leaders know they may take the blame at the ballot box as consumer confidence continues to fall and Trump cuts thousands of government jobs and services that millions of Americans rely on.

The GOP handwringing intensified this past week when a Republican candidate shockingly lost a state senate seat in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, where Trump romped by 15% and no Democrat had won since the 19th century.

“Special elections are probably overemphasized but they do provide some barometer of current political conditions,” said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst. “Emotions matter in the party bases.”

The Wisconsin race between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Susan Crawford has been on political junkies’ radar for months because the winner will determine control of the seven-member court that is at the center of crucial debates over voting rights and gerrymandering in one of the nation’s key swing states.

Democrats believe if Crawford wins, the court will eventually order new congressional maps that will more fairly divvy up the state’s eight representatives, which now have a 6-2 Republican edge even though the state’s voters are almost evenly split between the two parties.

The highest court in America’s Dairyland may also decide whether to reactivate a 175-year-old state law banning all abortions.

Both parties have poured cash into the nominally nonpartisan race with a record more than $81 million spent so far, according to a tally from New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice.

Trump has thrown his significant political weight behind Schimel, appearing via video at a rally for the ex-prosecutor from suburban Milwaukee.

Elon Musk, the controversial billionaire first buddy, has also made a late play in the race, donating millions and planning a weekend appearance at a rally where he planned to give away two controversial $1 million prizes to Republican organizers.

Not everyone thinks Musk’s support will boost Schimel. Polls show most Americans disapprove of the Tesla and SpaceX mogul’s prominent role in the Trump administration and his aggressive plan to cut federal jobs and even entire agencies.

“It’s good news for (Democrats) looking to strengthen opposition against Trump-era policies,” said Basil Smikle, a Columbia University professor and Democratic strategy. “(Wisconsin) in particular is both a referendum on Trump and Musk’s role in shaping the Trump presidency.”

In Florida, Democrats are hoping to pull off huge upsets by flipping one or both of two deep-red Republican congressional districts where Trump won by nearly 2-1 margins just a few months ago.

Republican Randy Fine is struggling to hold onto the Daytona Beach-based FL-06 seat that was left vacant when ex-Rep. Mike Waltz quit to become Trump’s national security adviser.

A shocking GOP-aligned poll showed Fine trailing by 3% to little-known Democratic challenger Josh Weil, a public school teacher who has outraised his opponent by a 10-1 margin.

On the other side of the Sunshine State, Republican operators are a bit less stressed about the race to fill the FL-01 seat in the Florida Panhandle that was once held by ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Republican Jimmy Patronis, who stepped down from his post as the state’s top financial officer to run for the seat, has deep roots in the ruby red district and is considered a less problematic candidate than Fine.

Even if their candidates don’t actually win either one of the Florida seats, coming close is a very good sign for Democrats, despite doom and gloom about the party’s future, analysts say.

David Nir, editor of the Downballot, which tracks below-the-radar races, says Team Blue has outperformed their electoral benchmarks by an average of 10% in 2025 special elections in a string of districts from Maine to Iowa.

“The last time we saw Democrats do this well in special elections was in the early years of Trump’s first term,” Nir said. “The end result was the 2018 blue wave that saw massive wins for Democrats, including taking back the House.”

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