Just when you thought Democrats might be on track to claw back the U.S. Senate next year, they decided it would be much more exciting to fling themselves head first into a cactus.

I’m talking about the Texas Democratic primary, where Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a progressive firebrand who just jumped into the race, is now the presumptive frontrunner. A favorite among hardcore Democrats looking for a fighter, Crockett is probably not the strongest candidate for winning a statewide race in the Lone Star State.

There’s even reporting that the Republicans’ Senate campaign arm “actively worked behind the scenes” to lure Crocket into the race, “believing she will be the easiest opponent to beat.”

It’s not hard to see why, considering some of Crockett’s past comments. She said Trump-supporting Latinos have a “slave mentality.” She referred to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, as “Governor Hot Wheels.” And during a clash with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, she described her Republican colleague as having a “bleach-blond, bad-built, butch body,” which you have to admit, takes some creativity.

But why should anyone outside Texas care who their Democrats nominate? Because control of the U.S. Senate could hang in the balance.

Beyond oversight and legislating, the party that controls the Senate may very well determine whether President Donald Trump gets another lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court. (That thought’s going to haunt you, isn’t it?) If he — the only president ever to be impeached twice — is impeached a third time, the Senate will also determine whether he is removed from office.

Unlike the House, which Democrats are now expected to retake, flipping the Senate would require winning eight of the nine Senate seats that are considered competitive. To get there, Democrats must defend four of their own seats and flip four of five competitive Republican-held seats, one of which is Texas: a state Trump won by 14 points last year.

This feat is hard, but not impossible. It probably would require a hat trick: a Democratic blue wave, a vulnerable Republican nominee and a Democratic Party that resists its chronic urge to self-immolate.

Historically, that’s asking a lot.

For 30 years, Democrats have sworn that Texas is about to flip. And for 30 years, Texas has responded, “Bless your heart.”

But this time, all the stars are aligning. Recent elections suggest a blue wave is building.

Meanwhile, the leading Republican contender in Texas is state Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton, a scandal-plagued Trumper who has survived an indictment, an impeachment and a messy divorce. This is to say, Paxton would be potentially beatable in a general election. (Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is currently polling third in the GOP primary because he’s considered too boring and too “establishment.”)

The final ingredient is a Democrat who can win in Texas. This is where things start falling apart.

After a “professional, friendly conversation” with Crockett, former Texas Rep. Colin Allred — a former NFL player and the kind of temperamentally moderate figure who might survive the political climate of Texas — chose to bow out of the Senate race rather than endure a “bruising primary.”

To be clear, Crockett does not have the field to herself. Her remaining rival is state Rep. James Talarico, a wunderkind whose national breakout came via the Joe Rogan podcast — the modern equivalent of a papal blessing for online clout, if not for winning statewide office in Texas.

Unlike Crockett (who has won only safe Democratic seats), Talarico flipped a state House seat in 2018.

Both Crockett and Talarico have the ability to go viral on the internet, generate excitement and raise millions online. And in today’s politics, those traits are prerequisites.

Still, it feels like Democrats might have sidelined their most viable general election nominee.

Yes, Allred lost badly in his 2024 bid for the Senate. But that was a presidential year with Trump on the ballot, and Allred still performed more than five points better than Kamala Harris. The 2026 environment will look more like that of 2018: lower turnout and no Trump at the top.

Republican Sen. Ted Cruz barely survived that cycle, only by a couple of points. And this time, Republicans may nominate someone even less popular. The opportunity is sitting right there, waving politely.

If only Democrats would nominate a viable candidate.

Another problem: Thanks to Republican redistricting, five House seats in Texas are becoming redder. One imagines that these House seats will be even harder for Democrats to hold on to if Crockett is on the ticket as the nominee for the U.S. Senate.

Which is why it borders on deranged that the state’s Democratic leaders are on the cusp of gambling the midterms on a candidate who may be electrifying to the progressive base but is stunningly out of step with the center-right voters who decide elections in Texas.

A year from now, don’t be surprised if pundits look back at this race and say that this entirely preventable implosion was the moment Democrats lost their shot at taking back control of both houses of Congress in 2026.

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Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

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