Editorial: How redistricting could blow up on Maryland Democrats

Baltimore Sun Editorial Board, The Baltimore Sun on Nov 18, 2025

Published in Op Eds

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Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson has gotten slammed by more than a few of his fellow Democrats for displaying cold feet at the prospect of congressional redistricting in the state.

Critics include his Old Dominion counterpart, Virginia Senate President L. Louise Lucas, who recently accused him of echoing “MAGA talking points” after he suggested publicly that redrawing districts to benefit Democrats (and offset Republican states pursuing the same tactic) amounted to an attempt to “rig the system.”

Yet as Gov. Wes Moore and his five-member redistricting commission move forward with their attempt to redraw those lines across the Free State in time for next year’s election — and turn the Democrats’ 7-1 advantage in the U.S. House to 8-0 — they’ll have to crunch a lot of numbers in a short period of time: census databases, voter registration data, past election results.

Here’s one especially relevant number they should not overlook: Five.

And here’s why: That’s the number of Maryland Supreme Court justices appointed by Gov. Moore’s predecessor, Republican Larry Hogan, to the seven-member panel. Think this working majority is highly motivated to help Maryland suppress Republican representation in Congress? That’s not to suggest the members of the state’s highest court think in such nakedly partisan terms, but it’s safe to assume they’ll be plenty skeptical when the inevitable legal challenges are brought.

It’s worth noting that the governor’s redistricting effort comes amid mid-decade, midterm gerrymandering efforts happening elsewhere, beginning with Texas Republicans and recently countered by California’s Democrats. Gerrymandering is repugnant when practiced by any political party, but you aren’t going to win many fights if you follow Marquess of Queensberry rules while your opponent is a no-holds-barred street fighter.

And Maryland, as one of the most Democratic-leaning states in the nation (and, yes, with a governor who is a rising star in his party), is hardly a disinterested bystander. A recent University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Institute of Politics poll found Marylanders really, really don’t care for President Donald Trump, with 67% disapproving of the job he’s doing. Most Marylanders would be happy to see him thwarted in the midterms.

Yet not so fast. Redistricting can get complicated quickly, and the governor’s panel — which had its first meeting on Tuesday— will have a lot of ground to cover.

Districts must be of equal population (the “one man, one vote” principle), compact, contiguous, must not dilute minority voting strength and must respect existing political subdivisions. The majority-Democratic redistricting panel will surely be looking to protect Democratic incumbents, which means most of their attention will be placed on the 1st District seat now occupied by U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, a Republican and current chair of the Freedom Caucus.

Harris has at least one advantage, and that’s geography. There’s only so much toying around one can do with a district that currently sweeps across the entire Eastern Shore and into Harford County and a small section of Baltimore County. Redraw the lines to bypass Harford or cross the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and perhaps access more Democrats, and suddenly U.S. Reps. Johnny Olszewski Jr. (2nd) and Sarah Elfreth (3rd) may find themselves facing much tougher reelection battles.

All of which suggests Senate President Ferguson wasn’t being MAGA when he questioned the wisdom of this strategy; he was simply being realistic. Imagine this worst-case scenario for Democrats: They work like dogs to redraw those lines in time for the next General Assembly session. Opponents file suit, and suddenly, the courts (state or federal, take your pick) make changes that actually cause Maryland Democrats to lose seats.

It’s all very well for the old-timers to rally Democratic loyalists (yes, we’re looking at you, U.S. Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jamie Raskin ), it’s another for Democrats to risk making matters worse for themselves when Maryland already has that 7-1 (9-1 if you count U.S. Sens. Angela Alsobrooks and Chris Van Hollen) Democratic advantage on Capitol Hill.

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