The U.S. Labor Department is sounding a stark warning that the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has devastated the ranks of agricultural workers and now may threaten the food supply.

It’s bad news for farmers, who have already been buffeted by this administration’s tariffs, as well as for U.S. consumers, who sent President Donald Trump back to the White House because they were fed up with pandemic-era inflation.

“The near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens,” the DOL document says, “combined with the lack of an available legal workforce” is “threatening the stability of domestic food production and prices for U.S. consumers.” Without swift action, it continues, “agricultural employers will be unable to maintain operations and the nation’s food supply will be at risk.”

The agricultural sector seems to agree. Beth Ford, CEO of Land O’Lakes — the massive, Minnesota-based dairy company — and chair of the National Business Roundtable’s immigration committee, says American farmers face a labor shortage so critical that unless it is addressed, “it could be a black swan event.”

Consumers — aka voters — are worried too. In a Pew Research Center survey conducted in late September, 65% of Americans said they were “very concerned” about the price of food and consumer goods. Both grocery prices and restaurant prices have risen since Trump took office.

The administration’s “shock and awe” enforcement actions, coupled with mass deportations, have brought border crossings to a standstill. That has left farmers facing a severe shortage of those who pick, pack and process much of the nation’s food supply.

The White House has had months to think through potential remedies, but harvest season is well underway and there’s still no plan. The farmer bailout Trump mentioned in September also has yet to materialize.

This summer, Trump appeared more sympathetic to both farmers and workers, noting that “our farmers are being hurt badly. They have very good workers. They’re not citizens, but they’ve turned out to be great.” He talked of finding a way to address farmers’ labor concerns, but never developed a solid proposal. And his immigration policies seem only to have hardened since then.

Back in July, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins dismissed the possibility of amnesty for farmworkers — and shrugged off the idea that foreign workers are needed in the agriculture sector. “There are plenty of workers in America,” she said then, including the “34 million able-bodied adults in our Medicaid program” who are facing new work requirements.

But this month, the Labor Department report flatly disputed her logic. “Despite rising wages, there is no indication that unemployed or marginally attached U.S. workers are entering the agricultural labor force in meaningful numbers.”

The reality is that immigrant farm labor is cheap — and farmers have long relied on it. But that does not mean farmers are entirely dependent on undocumented labor. They make use of the H-2A visa guest worker program, which allows seasonal help to stay up to nine months. But the program does not meet all agricultural labor needs, especially for year-round workers. In addition, applicants must be interviewed, vetted and their travel and housing expenses paid by the farmer, making it more costly.

The Labor Department is proposing to reduce farmers’ costs by lowering the wages offered through the H-2A program. But reducing labor costs does little for farmers who can’t find workers. And lower wages provide even less incentive for seasonal workers to brave the prospect of arrest and detention. Farmworkers have told journalists that, even though they’re in the country on work visas, they’re still being arrested and detained.

Now U.S. consumers will be left to deal with even higher prices and spot shortages, picking up the tab for poorly conceived policies that appear to have given little thought to the consequences for families, farmers or the overall economy. Labor-intensive fresh produce is particularly susceptible to disruption, and could drive retailers to seek out imports — which will also be costlier because of tariffs.

If consumers get hit both on domestic and foreign agricultural products, there could be a cost to the GOP in the midterms, as well. Trump’s victory over President Joe Biden is owed at least in part to the price of eggs.

Trump should seek lasting solutions to America’s immigration problems over the performative brutality of immigration raids. Whether it comes as part of a comprehensive reform package (which Congress has bickered over for 30 years) or as standalone legislation targeted at farmworkers, such a policy should address employer needs while eliminating the incentive for risky border crossings.

Such deals have long eluded Congress. But Trump prides himself on striking impossible deals. That’s what he promised Americans he’d do for them — that, and lower the price of groceries.

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This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Patricia Lopez is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. She is a former member of the editorial board at the Minneapolis Star Tribune, where she also worked as a senior political editor and reporter.

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