Schemes of national governance are complicated and subject to generalization, but for the sake of argument, let’s put “democracy” at one end of a spectrum and “autocracy” at the other and consider the bright line that separates them?

There isn’t one. In fact, since 1997 the Center for Systemic Peace has maintained a 21-point scale that takes into account various political variables—elections, the role of the military, economic inequality, political violence and so on—in order to describe where countries stand on the scale between democracy and autocracy.

On the autocracy end, at -10, are the countries that you would expect: North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, obvious autocracies all. At +10 are the apparent democracies: Switzerland, New Zealand, Canada and, until recently, the United States.

In the middle, between -5 and +5, are what political scientists call partial democracies, hybrid regimes or anocracies. They embody elements of both autocracy and democracy, and the point where one clearly shades into the other is elusive.

In her ominously entitled book, “How Civil Wars Start,” published in 2023, political scientist Barbara F. Walter describes the erosion of America’s standing on this 21-point scale during President Donald Trump’s first term, which began with the U.S. at +10.

Shortly after Trump’s inauguration in 2017, America’s score fell to a +8 based on Trump’s efforts to purge government figures he deemed disloyal and to punish opponents. He refused to disclose his tax returns, and he pardoned friends who were guilty of crimes.

By 2019 Trump was refusing to cooperate with congress, especially in connection with his impeachment. He sued to block subpoenas and refused to turn over information needed for congressional oversight. The polity scale score dropped to +7.

The pandemic and the George Floyd protests encouraged Trump’s tendencies to absorb power into the executive branch. And then there was January 6, an indisputable, if inept, effort to overturn an election.

By the end of Trump’s term, the U.S.’s score had dropped to +5, making America, according to Walter, an anocracy, rather than a democracy, for the first time in more than 200 years.

I searched in vain for the U.S.’s current score, but Trump’s first nine months in office can’t have been good for it. It’s easy to see why Trump’s critics worry that we’re headed for genuine autocracy.

Of course, few countries aspire to autocracy. About the only countries that are honest about this are places such as Saudi Arabia, which unashamedly calls itself a Kingdom. China, on the other hand, is officially the People’s Republic of China. North Korea, fooling no one, is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Even Iran, a thoroughgoing theocracy, calls itself the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But we have (or had) a real republic, and it would be a shame, despite its imperfections, to let it slip away.

Because, as the analysis above suggests, autocracy always comes gradually. Where’s the point when we are no longer a republic, or even an anocracy, but have become an autocracy?

Is it when the president openly orders his Department of Justice to prosecute his political enemies? Is it when he sends federalized troops under flimsy pretenses into states and cities governed by Democrats? Is it when he uses military force against a sovereign nation (Venezuela, for example) without bothering to consult Congress or ask for a declaration of war?

Or does autocracy begin with less dramatic measures, like when Trump started calling the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America and required others to do the same? Or when he renamed American military installations to honor the Confederate officers who fought to preserve slavery because… well, because he could?

Or does autocracy begin when something clicks in the mind of the wannabe authoritarian and he realizes that he can do nearly anything he wants with impunity?

I thought of this last week when Trump threatened to relocate World Cup matches scheduled to be played in Boston next year because Boston’s mayor is “radical left.”

Maybe autocracy starts with something as trivial as this. Or maybe it starts the moment our country loses the will to say no to Trump.

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