What If Trump Ditches the Tariffs Too Quickly?

I hope Trump pushes forward on tariffs. Hear me out.

He has already backtracked faster than a hiker who spies a rattlesnake. Trump spent the first weeks of his second term spitting out tariff rates in a twitchy staccato. On Feb. 1, he announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada (along with a 10% tax on goods from China) supposedly due to fentanyl trafficking and illegal border crossings, and then reversed himself. On Feb. 3, he decided upon a 30-day pause on Canada/Mexico tariffs (which in any case violated the USMCA, the trade agreement Trump negotiated in his first term).

One day after affirming that the tariffs on our neighbors and most important trading partners would go forward, Trump announced that the Mexico/Canada tariffs were suspended.

This on-again/off-again havoc continued for several more weeks (a 200% tariff on Champagne and wine from the EU, 25% tax on cars and parts, a tariff on movies, carve-outs for various electronics, copper, lumber, etc.) culminating in "Liberation Day" on April 2, when Trump announced a national emergency to justify a suite of tariffs that seemed to have been designed by an illiterate on acid.

After "Liberation Day," the world reeled. The European Union, China and other nations announced retaliatory tariffs, and markets crashed. The words "Smoot Hawley" were suddenly more popular than at any time since the premiere of "Ferris Bueller's Day Off." All over the globe, panic buying, hoarding and anxiety skyrocketed.

And then came the flight of capital. It wasn't just the obliteration of $8.5 trillion in wealth between April 2 and April 8, but also the dollar was losing its luster as the safe haven in times of upheaval. Instead of rushing to buy dollars, investors were hanging back.

The entire edifice of American strength -- financial, educational, military, strategic and moral -- was trembling and starting to crack as in the first stages of a massive earthquake.

For a few days, Trump dug in, lecturing the American people that their children had to live with fewer and more expensive dolls. But a few days later, again, President Tariff backed down. On April 9, he suspended the "Liberation Day" levies for 90 days -- though he tacked on an additional 145% tariff on China as a face-saving measure. And then, on May 12, he climbed down even from those.

As matters stand at this moment (and things may have changed by the time you read this), the overall average effective tariff rate is 17.8% -- the highest since 1934. It was 2.5% when Trump took office in January.

That's enough to do serious harm to the average consumer, but if the current pattern holds, Trump will back down even more, all the while claiming, as he backpedals, that he's "winning" glorious "deals."

How can I possibly suggest that I would prefer Trump to take the ruinous path on tariffs that he first started down? Sadly, because I think economic pain for the average American is the only thing that really matters.

Since taking office again, Trump has engaged in a level of naked corruption that has no peer in American history. The $400 million Qatar luxury jet is only the latest gift he has accepted. He's been a cash register with the nuclear codes, accepting gifts and probably bribes via memecoins and crypto, deregulating cryptocurrencies to ease the flow, selling tours of the White House to any and all purchasers, and on and on.

Will this be enough to persuade a critical mass of voters that they made a mistake in 2024 that they must never repeat? I doubt it.

Trump has also begun the project of dismantling our democratic system, issuing executive orders when he lacks the power to do so and failing to even ask for legislation from a Congress controlled by his own party. Will that be enough to persuade voters of his dangerousness? If inflation is trending down and employment remains strong?

Trump is unraveling our global alliances, siding with our enemies, threatening our neighbors, and placing idiots in charge of our military and intelligence services. He is endangering the lives of thousands of Americans by putting public health in the hands of a fanatic antivax kook. Will that move the needle?

Trump has attacked one of the foundations of our prosperity and world leadership: scientific research and development. He is undermining the First and Fifth Amendments by deporting immigrants purely for speech the government dislikes. He has already destroyed the expectation that public life will be conducted with anything resembling adherence to facts and truth, respect for one's fellow citizens, or basic decency.

But this country's voters have demonstrated that they can reelect someone who attempted a violent coup d'etat and who demanded that we "terminate" the Constitution in order to put him back in the White House in 2022. They may express disapproval for his wild statements and lawless actions (and polling shows a dramatic decline in his approval ratings), but if the economy revs up and prices come down? What will they say then?

No, sadly I believe that a durable majority of the American people will not turn their backs on MAGA unless they feel dire consequences in their daily lives. He threatens to destroy the system of checks and balances adopted two centuries ago that has proven to be the most successful form of government in history. If the American people are too ignorant or complacent or insensate to respond to the manifold depredations of this president, then economic pain may be the only way.

"Experience is the school of mankind," said Edmund Burke, "and they will learn at no other."

Bring on the tariffs!

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Mona Charen is policy editor of The Bulwark and host of the "Beg to Differ" podcast. Her new book, "Hard Right: The GOP's Drift Toward Extremism," is available now.