Trump's Tariff Plan -- It's Not Working Yet

Debra Saunders on Apr 25, 2025

WASHINGTON -- Bryan Riley is not a fan of President Donald Trump's tariffs -- and that's painful for him. "I want him to succeed," Riley told me. "I work at the National Taxpayers Union."

The NTU is hardly an anti-Trump institution. But as director of NTU's Free Trade Initiative, Riley fears the Trump tariffs are "undermining his prospects for success."

Trump envisions his tariffs creating more manufacturing jobs, but he turned his plan into a guessing game. One week into his "reciprocal" tariffs plan, markets tanked and Trump called for a 90-day pause.

Disclaimer: If you've covered Trump since he first took the oath of office in January 2017 (like me), you learn that it is not wise to pounce on his every pronouncement or order. The president uses threats for leverage. He's not afraid to change course. His gamesmanship can be agonizing to observe.

I remember his first meeting with NATO in Brussels in May 2017. Trump shocked the international community when he hijacked a dedication ceremony for a 9/11 memorial (of all events) to hector NATO leaders for not paying their "fair share" on defense spending. ("Fair share" at the time meant that NATO countries should spend at least 2% of GDP on defense.)

"Twenty-three of the 28 member nations are still not paying what they should be paying and what they are supposed to be paying for their defense," Trump said at the time. "This is not fair to the people and taxpayers of the United States."

I was at the NATO confab. Like others, I was shocked that a U.S. president would call allies deadbeats, even if he was right.

Afterward, the number of NATO countries that had met this spending goal rose to nine by 2020 and 23 last year.

So, Trump's approach can work.

I don't see the 2025 tariffs delivering the same happy ending.

After Trump won the 2024 election, hedge-fund billionaire and GOP mega-donor Ken Griffin proclaimed, "America is open for business again." With President Joe Biden out of office, Wall Street and Main Street expected the economy to thrive.

But Wednesday, Griffin expressed concern at Semafor's World Economy Summit that the Trump tariffs may tarnish the U.S. "brand" -- and if that happens, it could take "a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done."

Riley strongly takes issue with the administration's belief that U.S. trade deficits have created a "national emergency."

"The United States has run trade deficits for 48 straight years," Riley wrote on NTU's blog, "during which time the U.S. economy has grown by 255% in real terms. Decades of trade deficits have corresponded with increases in manufacturing output, wealth, and household incomes. In the United States, GDP per capita has increased more than in our top trading partners like Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, Korea, and Mexico, even though we tend to run trade deficits with them."

For his part, Trump ran for office in 2024 telling voters he would increase tariffs in order to create more manufacturing jobs in the United States. Unfortunately, Trump failed to inform voters how much he would raise tariffs. Hence America's collective sticker shock.

In an interview with Time magazine released Friday, Trump claimed he had made "200 deals" on trade since "Liberation Day" -- but he has yet to say with whom.

Friday, on Air Force One heading to Rome to attend Pope Francis' funeral, Trump told reporters, "Things are working out very well, and people are starting to understand how good tariffs are for us."

And: "No matter how big the win is, the press will not give me credit for it."

I think it would be easier to support Trump's plan if the rollout had been structured, if the targets more aligned with national security interests and if Trump had stayed the course.

Without the above, the tariffs look like a crapshoot. They may succeed. I hope they succeed. But what are the odds?

Contact Review-Journal Washington columnist Debra J. Saunders at dsaunders@reviewjournal.com. Follow @debrajsaunders on X.

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