Tropical depression forecast to form Saturday in Atlantic while NHC tracks 2nd system

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Aug 23, 2025

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center on Saturday continued to track two systems in the Atlantic with a chance to become the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the most likely of those was a low pressure system about 400 miles south-southeast of Bermuda which continues to get better defined with gale-force winds east of its center.

“This system is expected to become a tropical storm (Saturday) afternoon or evening, with further intensification likely through Sunday while the low moves northward at 10 to 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters said,

An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system in the afternoon and the NHC said interests in Bermuda should monitor the system though the threat to the island has decreased since Friday.

It could become Tropical Depression Six or if strong enough form into Tropical Storm Fernand.

The other system tracked by the NHC was a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 650 miles east of the Caribbean’s Windward Islands.

“Some development of this system could occur during the next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph,” forecasters said. “Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday conditions over the central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.”

The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.

What had been the season’s first hurricane, Hurricane Erin, which had grown into a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds last week, turned extratropical on Friday without making landfall, although it was blamed for nine deaths in the Cape Verde Islands. As of Saturday it no longer showed Erin on its outlook map.

It plowed across the Atlantic and turned to the north while dumping rain on the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks & Caicos, Bahamas and Outer Banks of North Carolina as it skirted the U.S. East Coast.

Swells from the storm continue to be a threat to the Atlantic coast on Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its season forecast to call for 13-18 named storms this year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.