Exxon, Chevron cautious on Venezuela as Trump urges oil growth

Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg News on Jan 31, 2026

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Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. are treading carefully as they weigh President Donald Trump’s call to invest $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry against the disciplined spending model that’s sent their stocks soaring on Wall Street.

The chief executive officers of both companies talked up the long-term opportunities in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest reserves on paper, but were hesitant to commit new capital after reporting earnings Friday. They said political and legal reform is needed to protect their investments while stressing any new projects would have to compete with other opportunities around the world.

Chevron, the only U.S. oil major currently in Venezuela, plans to finance its operations there with cash from existing assets, meaning it can grow production as much as 50% without having to draw on its global capital budget.

“You should expect us to remain focused on value and capital discipline,” CEO Mike Wirth said on call with analysts. “It’s a large resource that has the opportunity to become a more sizable part of our portfolio in the future. But we also need to see stability in the country. We need to have confidence in the fiscal regime.”

Earlier this week, Venezuela’s acting president signed off on historic changes to its nationalist oil policy that would reduce taxes and allow greater ownership for foreign oil companies, less than a month after U.S. forces captured longtime leader Nicolas Maduro. Shortly after, U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license expanding the ability for U.S. companies to export, sell and refine crude coming from the sanctioned South American country.

Exxon CEO Darren Woods, who drew Trump’s ire after calling Venezuela “uninvestable” at a White House meeting earlier this month, struck a more positive tone Friday, praising the administration’s efforts to improve Venezuela’s legal and fiscal regime. He stressed, however, that they would take time.

“What I said at the White House was, given the current fiscal structures in place, legal, that you couldn’t invest, but that there was opportunities to address that,” Woods said. “The Trump administration is committed to doing that.”

Woods also said the country would need more democratic representation, something the Trump administration hasn’t yet focused on.

Exxon stock was little changed Friday but touched a record high this week as investors rewarded the oil giant for strong growth in low-cost barrels from Guyana and the Permian that helped offset the drop in crude prices and reduces the company need to invest in Venezuela. Chevron’s shares rose 3.3% as the company cut costs, raised its dividend and increased production.

Venezuela “is a tangible growth driver for the company considering its assets have been kept at performance level while competitors had exited the country,” James West, an analyst at Melius Research said in a note. “However, the scale of production still depends on the fiscal regime, regulation and political stability.”

Chevron will use early profits from Venezuela to recoup debts owed by state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA and pay regular operating costs like well workovers and maintenance on pumps, pipelines and compressor stations. The company currently produces about 250,000 barrels a day from joint ventures shared with PDVSA, making up about 2% of Chevron’s annual cash flow.

The changes to Venezuela’s hydrocarbon law passed this week are a “step in the right direction,” Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said in an interview. But Chevron would need additional authorizations from the U.S. Treasury to meet its planned 50% production increase, she said.

Another challenge is Venezuela’s heavy oil, which is highly viscous and does not flow easily. Exxon’s Woods compared it to Canada’s oil sands, where it has an “advantaged approach that will lead to lower cost of production.”

The biggest hurdle, however, is making sure any future investment is legally and politically secure. Exxon has had assets nationalized in Venezuela in both the 1970s and the mid-2000s.

“They changed the rules of the game,” Woods said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s a very slippery slope once you begin to cooperate and work with people who are stealing from you.”