Trump's new Venezuela escalation raises questions on next steps

Bloomberg News on Dec 30, 2025

By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here

President Donald Trump’s unusual decision to reveal a covert U.S. strike against what he said was a drug-trafficking facility in Venezuela marked a new escalation in his pressure campaign against the regime of Nicolas Maduro, raising new questions about how far Trump is willing to go.

Trump, who’s repeatedly threatened to expand his campaign of airstrikes on drug vessels at sea to Venezuelan territory, gave few details of the operation, which wasn’t announced by the Pentagon. CNN and the New York Times said the attack was conducted by a Central Intelligence Agency drone and didn’t cause any casualties. The CIA declined to comment.

The attack is likely to inject additional energy into heated discussions in U.S. Congress about the strategy toward Venezuela, and the debate about how far Trump can go without seeking authorization. While it would represent the first known U.S. strike on Venezuelan soil, the use of the intelligence agency and the targeting of an alleged Tren de Aragua cartel facility rather than an official government installation, complicate the picture.

“Trump is inching forward,” said Evan Ellis, a Latin America specialist at the Army War College. “If this really was a covert CIA operation, it’s something new and beyond what was done before. But it’s not jumping into a new phase of land attacks.”

Trump’s maritime strikes, along with the seizure of tankers at sea used to carry Venezuelan oil, have already drawn skepticism from Capitol Hill about their legality, even as he builds up forces in the region. Tuesday, the Treasury Department said it was imposing sanctions on Venezuela-based companies for links to drones supplied by Iran. For the moment, Maduro is showing no sign of giving in to Trump’s demands he leave.

Trump has warned for weeks that he was ready to expand the military campaign by striking targets on land.

“There was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs,” Trump told reporters Monday, confirming comments first made in an interview last week.

“Normally something that would be conducted under a covert action would not be public information, and it would be classified and it would remain among the most sensitive types of intelligence activities,” said Carrie Cordero, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Trump has repeatedly declined to say explicitly if he is seeking to oust the Venezuelan leader. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem told Fox News last week that Maduro “needs to be gone.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called the Venezuelan leader’s behavior “intolerable,” but said the U.S. is focused on stopping drug trafficking and Venezuelan cooperation with Iran.

“We still have more questions than answers about this operation,” said Geoff Ramsey, a Venezuela researcher and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Maduro is unlikely to be intimidated by U.S. covert action in Venezuela if it continues to be used to go after relatively low-level drug-trafficking schemes.”

In a nearly two-hour address to Venezuelans Monday night, Maduro didn’t mention the latest attack. In recent months, he’s barely alluded to the dozens of boat strikes off Venezuela’s coast that have killed more than 100 people.

In recent appearances, Maduro has emphasized the solidarity and loyalty of the military. The bet is that he can survive any blows to public perception dealt by the U.S. — even an incursion on Venezuelan soil — as long as he has the backing of his generals. Meantime, Maduro is avoiding escalation and continuing to call for peaceful talks.

“He controls himself because he knows he is in a tremendously compromised situation,” said Carmen Beatriz Fernández, director of Spain-based political consultancy DataStrategia. “It’s fear combined with a strategic response, because he still holds onto the possibility to negotiate.”

Trump on Monday said he had spoken with Maduro “pretty recently,” but dismissed the conversation as unproductive.

“Nothing much comes of it,” he said of their calls.

A covert CIA operation — a opposed to a military mission — against land targets offers an advantage in terms of legal basis for the U.S. administration, according to Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

”An attack by U.S. military forces would in effect be an act of war,” he said, requiring Congressional authorization. “That’s why I think they used the CIA, though there’s not much of a difference here in the sense that the CIA operates Reaper drones and the military operates Reaper drones.”

The Pentagon directed a request to confirm the strike on the loading dock to the White House, which didn’t respond. Trump in October confirmed he’d authorized the CIA to take covert action inside Venezuela.

“This is easier than U.S. military air and missile strikes, or less risky,” said Cancian. “That’s why I’m guessing they’re going to continue.”