Bolsonaro's chosen son, Flavio, faces uphill battle against Lula in Brazil 2026 election

Flavio Bolsonaro never appeared the likeliest choice to inherit his father’s political mantle, even when former President Jair Bolsonaro was thrown behind bars and ruled out of Brazil’s 2026 election for attempting a coup.

Unlike his brother Eduardo, he hadn’t forged ties with global conservatives like Donald Trump. And in contrast to his stepmother Michelle, he doesn’t enjoy close relationships with Brazil’s booming evangelical communities, a key source of Bolsonaro support. His strongest attribute was his willingness to work with centrist lawmakers, who, like investors, preferred Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas as a presidential candidate.

But it shouldn’t have shocked markets or allies when Flavio announced Friday that he had won his father’s backing to challenge leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year. By then, the 44-year-old senator had spent months positioning himself for a blessing the former president was unlikely to bestow on anyone from outside his own bloodline.

The decision opened the next chapter in the months-long succession drama that has gripped the Brazilian right as it awaited word from Bolsonaro, who maintains substantial support from his base despite his September conviction for plotting to remain in power after his 2022 defeat.

Long overlooked in that saga, Flavio emerged in part because of his ability to navigate the dynamics of a family famous for the impulsive radicalism of its patriarch, whose 2018 rise to the presidency made him an early face of the brasher right-wing politics gaining traction across the globe.

As the Chosen Son, however, Flavio now faces the task of winning back moderate voters put off by the Bolsonaro brand, while also reassuring a centrist establishment worried that the former president may have just handed the election to Lula.

He has significant ground to make up: Lula led Flavio 51% to 36% in a runoff scenario, a DataFolha poll published Saturday showed. Freitas trailed the leftist president by just 5 points.

‘It’s decided’

Inside the family, the first sign that Flavio had a real chance came amid Bolsonaro’s trial, when the former president told his eldest son to start warming up for a potential bid, according to a person close to the family. Bolsonaro had insisted he would run again despite an electoral ban and the coup trial, but he was increasingly short on time or options.

Those around him sensed that his desire to keep control of his right-wing movement had made it unlikely he’d back Freitas, a former minister in Bolsonaro’s government and darling of investors.

Eduardo, who’d moved to the U.S. in March to seek Trump’s help for his father, fell out of the picture after the American leader slapped tariffs and sanctions on Brazil. Prosecutors in September charged him with obstructing justice in Bolsonaro’s case, effectively ensuring he’d stay abroad.

Michelle’s lack of electoral experience — she has never campaigned for office — led Bolsonaro to push her toward a Senate run instead.

Flavio, meanwhile, emerged as his father’s chief spokesperson and surrogate, especially as Eduardo’s push for U.S. tariffs began to backfire by boosting Lula in the polls. In Brasilia, it soon became clear that anyone seeking access to Bolsonaro had to go through Flavio.

The senator began floating a potential presidential run to allies, according to three people familiar with the discussions who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Flavio has previously pushed his family to adopt a more moderate tone and took a more conciliatory approach than Eduardo, who publicly questioned Freitas’ loyalty. He sought to strengthen ties with leaders of the influential centrao bloc, while also trying to engage investors who were openly pushing for Freitas, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation.

Last Tuesday, Flavio visited his father at the facility where he’s been held since starting his 27-year sentence in late November. Most people close to the family had expected Bolsonaro’s decision to come only in March. Instead, Flavio left with the green light.

“He told me, ‘You’re the candidate,’” Flavio told Bloomberg News Friday night. “‘It’s decided.’”

Moderate angst

The family, which had shown public signs of splintering during the trial, quickly united behind him, with both Eduardo and Michelle offering support on social media. That should help Flavio — whose efforts to moderate have at times sowed mistrust among hardcore Bolsonaro supporters — consolidate the base and position him as Lula’s top challenger.

The center is already proving harder to hold. Few centrao leaders reacted publicly to the sudden announcement. Freitas hasn’t made any public comment on the decision, although Flavio said he has won the governor’s support in a private conversation.

But the choice prompted complaints from multiple centrist politicians who requested anonymity, criticizing Bolsonaro’s refusal to embrace the Sao Paulo governor as a pragmatic alternative. One of them said Flavio would struggle to consolidate the bloc’s support.

Flavio said he is reaching out to investors with the message that he’ll be more fiscally responsible than Lula, whose spending policies have ignited concerns about Brazil’s deficits and mounting public debt.

“We know what we have to do is the opposite of what the current government is doing,” he said. “Rebalance the accounts, stop spending more than we collect, stop extorting the population with tax increases.”

But convincing investors of his fiscal credentials — especially after Bolsonaro’s own budgetary excesses — is only half the battle. Brazilian markets sank after the announcement Friday, with traders seeing Flavio’s candidacy as a massive boost to Lula.

Flavio is a stalwart Bolsonarista: He’s spent months pushing legislation to provide amnesty to his father and others implicated in the coup plot. The idea is unpopular among moderate voters, as are the Bolsonaros: members of the former president’s family are rejected by at least 70% of independent voters, according to a November survey from Genial/Quaest.

A 56% majority held a negative image of Flavio, according to LatAm Pulse, a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News.

That has left many investors and centrists hoping there’s still a chance his candidacy will quickly fall apart, clearing the way for Freitas to reemerge. The governor, who has signaled he won’t run without Bolsonaro’s support, must decide by April whether to seek reelection or the presidency.

But Nabhan Garcia, a former Bolsonaro campaign coordinator, said he was surprised by the positive reaction from another crucial sector: Brazil’s massive agribusiness industry, a pillar of the right that has resisted supporting Lula despite his efforts to win it back.

Garcia also noted that Bolsonaro had started the 2018 race far behind in the polls, only to win.

“Flavio has a history of being very level-headed, and he learned how to negotiate,” Garcia said. “He’s a name that could surprise.”