Xi puts biggest US-China flashpoint back on agenda in Trump call

When Xi Jinping and Donald Trump sat down in South Korea last month to discuss a pause in their trade war, Taiwan surprisingly didn’t come up. Now the biggest flashpoint between the U.S. and China is firmly back on the agenda.

In an hourlong phone call with Trump on Monday, Xi seized on a diplomatic row with Japan in a bid to assert China’s sovereignty over Taiwan — and shape U.S. policy in its favor. Framing Beijing’s claim as an “integral part of the post-World War II international order,” the Chinese leader reminded Trump that their nations once fought side by side against fascism and “militarism” — a thinly veiled nod to Japan’s expansionist past.

Trump made no mention of Taiwan or Japan in his statement on the call, instead stressing progress on trade and calling relations with China “extremely strong!” But just hours later, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told reporters that Trump had reached out to brief her on the conversation with Xi, and reaffirm ties with one of the U.S.’s most important allies in Asia.

Still, questions linger about just how far Trump might go to further boost ties with China, particularly after he accepted an invitation to visit Beijing next April. He’s signaled a willingness to roll back certain national security restrictions, including on sales of more advanced versions of Nvidia Corp.’s AI chips, and has previously cast doubt about his commitment to Taiwan’s security.

Xi has already forced Trump to back down from sky-high tariffs by leveraging China’s dominance over rare earths — a weapon that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likened to putting the U.S. “under the sword.” Trump appeared to acknowledge China’s newfound status as an equal on the world stage, describing his Oct. 30 summit with Xi in Busan, South Korea, as a “G2 meeting.” Ahead of that meeting, China had pushed the U.S. to change a decades-old phrase describing its stance on Taiwan independence.

“China does not expect the United States to fully abandon Taiwan, but Xi’s growing confidence in his relationship with Trump — and the warm afterglow of the Busan summit — has him sensing an opportunity to use Washington to gain diplomatic leverage against Tokyo,” said Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

The China-Japan flare-up began on Nov. 7, when Takaichi — who took power last month — enraged Beijing by suggesting her nation’s troops could be drawn into a Taiwan crisis. China unleashed a flurry of economic reprisals and nationalist barbs to pressure her to retract the remarks. When she refused, Beijing escalated its diplomatic offensive by taking the dispute to the United Nations, pushing countries to side with it.

The risk for Taiwan now is that Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, seeks to leverage his economic strength to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its allies. Trump appeared to try to dispel those concerns on his recent three-country swing through Asia, during which he told Takaichi she could call in “any favors” needed to help Japan.

“She’s facing travel advisories, seafood bans, live-fire exercises and threats of decapitation from a Chinese diplomat,” said Ryan Fedasiuk, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “President Trump would be well within his rights to offer his support to Japan as a model ally in Asia.”

On Truth Social, Trump said he had a “very good” telephone call with Xi and hailed “significant progress” on a truce that saw the U.S. lower fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods and ease export controls in return for Beijing agreeing to buy soybeans and suspend certain restrictions on rare earth sales.

Trump’s Cabinet would likely be a restraining factor if Washington faced increased pressure over Taiwan. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has pushed back against concerns Trump would change U.S. policy on Taiwan in exchange for a trade deal. “No one is contemplating that,” he said ahead of the Trump-Xi summit last month.

‘Worrisome’

Yet since Japan’s new leader stumbled into a crisis with her nation’s top trading partner, Trump and his lieutenants have refrained from publicly backing Tokyo. Lower-level officials — including the U.S. ambassador to Japan — have spoken out in support of Takaichi.

Even their endorsement was “worrisome” for Beijing, said Wu Xinbo, an adviser to the Chinese government.

Trump’s call was a chance for Beijing to gauge his administration’s official stance on the issue, send the message that Washington shouldn’t support Takaichi’s comments and remind Trump of the highly sensitive nature of cross-strait issues, according to Wu, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies.

“The U.S. should handle the Taiwan issue very carefully,” Wu added, noting that he expects the Taiwan issue to feature more prominently between now and Trump’s visit to Beijing in April.

Several developments related to Taiwan risk derailing U.S.-China ties ahead of then.

Taiwanese officials are still hoping to arrange President Lai Ching-te’s transit through the U.S. after Trump denied him permission to do so in July, Bloomberg reported at the time, citing people familiar. Such a visit would test the detente between China and the U.S., potentially putting the flow of rare earths at risk.

Another area where Xi could pressure Trump is weapon sales. The U.S. recently approved a possible package estimated to be worth $330 million, according to a statement from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency. China protested that move and urged Washington to stop arming Taiwan.

For now, Trump’s call with Xi likely puts a ceiling on China’s escalation with Japan, in return for the U.S. keeping on the sidelines, according to Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group and a former U.S. diplomat in China and Japan.

“Beijing likely used the call to reinforce Trump’s desire for stable relations with Beijing — including a visit to China in April — while also reminding him of the red line of Taiwan,” he added.

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—With assistance from Qianwei Zhang.