Analysis: Democrats weathering redistricting storm with majority in sight

WASHINGTON — Halfway through the 2026 midterm cycle, the fight for the House is remarkably stable, and that’s good news for Democrats’ chances of winning the majority.

Republican efforts to pad their majority through mid-decade redistricting haven’t been as successful as projected thus far, and President Donald Trump’s first year of his second term hasn’t been as popular as Republicans had expected.

Nearly 90 years of history is on Democrats’ side. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles was four (1962) and five (1986).

This cycle, Democrats, on paper, need to flip three seats for the majority, but redistricting could push that number higher. Sweeping victories around the country last week have emboldened Democrats and showed that the party could be on the march in House districts beyond the Toss-up races.

Same size battlefield

Over the past year, neither the size nor the shape of the House battlefield has fundamentally changed. That’s sobering news for Republicans, who had hoped to reshape the midterm terrain this year to prepare for a potential storm next year.

Back in early March, when Inside Elections released its first set of race ratings, the races rated Solid for either party were nearly even (180 for Republicans and 179 for Democrats). Sixty-four races were seen as competitive (Likely/Lean/Tilt/Toss-up), with Ohio’s 15 seats unrated as we awaited a new map.

When the Likely/Lean/Tilt races were allotted to each party, Democrats were favored in 207 seats compared with 203 for Republicans. It was a remarkably symmetric battlefield, with both parties short of, but within reach of, the 218 seats necessary for a majority.

The current House battlefield isn’t dramatically different. There are more seats rated as Solid for Republicans than Democrats (192 to 180), but the seat count is more even when accounting for the 63 competitive races. Republicans have just a 213-210 advantage when allotting the Likely/Lean/Tilt races, with a dozen Toss-ups left over.

Republicans had hoped to reconfigure the battlefield through an onslaught of mid-decade redistricting, but Democrats have held their own thus far.

A changed environment

One thing that has changed is the national political environment. Back in early March, Trump’s job rating was even (48% approve vs. 47% disapprove), according to Nate Silver’s national average. Eight months later, that has slipped considerably to 54% disapproval compared with just 42% approval.

A deeper dive into the president’s numbers doesn’t get any better for Republicans. Trump’s job rating is trending the way it was at this point during his first term, which eventually led to a Democratic net gain of 41 House seats in the 2018 midterms.

Trump also has a negative job rating on every major issue, including immigration (-3 points), jobs and the economy (-15 points), health care (-14 points), trade (-16 points) and inflation/cost of living (-24 points), according to G. Elliott Morris, formerly of FiveThirtyEight.

Despite the dramatic confidence exuded by Trump and congressional Republicans in the aftermath of the 2024 elections, the ingredients for a brutal set of midterms for the GOP can already be found. We may have even gotten a glimpse of that last week.

While not a direct referendum, Trump’s poor standing contributed to big Democratic victories across the country. Yes, Democratic candidates won in Democratic areas, but they generally outperformed their 2024 margins by 8 to 9 points, boosted by a combination of high base turnout, support from independent voters and the inability of Republicans to reassemble the Trump coalition when the president isn’t on the ballot.

Recent rating changes

The approval of Proposition 50 in California was not only a shot in the arm for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s presidential ambitions but also critical to the fight for the House majority.

The Democratic-drawn congressional map has prompted 13 rating changes by Inside Elections, all but two in favor of Democrats. The 1st, 3rd and 41st districts shifted to Solid Democratic from previously favoring Republicans, making reelection extremely difficult for GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley and Ken Calvert. Calvert has already announced he’ll run for the neighboring 40th District after his Inland Empire seat became unrecognizable under the new lines.

Democrats are hoping to add two more California wins to those three pickups, for a net gain of five seats. The 22nd District in the Central Valley went from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, but Democrats still have to prove they can defeat GOP Rep. David Valadao. And in the 48th District, Republican Darrell Issa finds his Solid Republican race has turned into a Toss-up. The Southern California district is now one of the most evenly divided in the country with a near-even Inside Elections Baseline score.

California Democrats tried to shore up six seats they already hold. The 13th (Adam Gray) and 45th (Derek Tran) districts shifted from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic. Rep. Dave Min’s 47th went from Tilt Democratic to Likely Democratic, and seats represented by Josh Harder (9th), George Whitesides (27th) and Mike Levin (49th) are now rated Solid Democratic and no longer competitive.

Two seats got better for Republicans. Southern California’s 40th District, represented by GOP Rep. Young Kim, shifted to Solid Republican from Lean Republican, and Northern California’s 6th District shifted from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic as Democrats tailored surrounding seats in their favor. The 6th is now open because Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is running for the redrawn 3rd District.

Democrats got more good redistricting news this week from Utah, when a judge nixed the map drawn by Republicans in the legislature in favor of a map that practically hands Democrats a seat. Inside Elections shifted the race rating for Utah’s 1st District from Solid Republican all the way to Solid Democratic. GOP Rep. Blake Moore, who holds the current 1st District seat, now represents 95% of the redrawn 2nd, which is still rated Solid Republican.

Redistricting

Overall, Democrats’ potential gain of three to five seats in California could balance out Republicans’ potential gain of three to five seats in Texas. And the Democratic gain in Utah could negate what Republicans did in Missouri.

Republicans are probably still ahead in the overall redistricting fight, thanks to new lines in Ohio and North Carolina. And Republicans could draw themselves a handful of more favorable districts in Indiana and Florida. But again, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore looks determined to help Democrats gain a seat in Maryland, and Virginia Democrats have started a process that could lead to them gaining two more seats out of the commonwealth. At this point, the net result of redistricting looks like a net gain of only a few seats for the GOP.

A critical unknown in the redistricting saga and the corresponding fight for the House is if or when the Supreme Court will roll back Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. That could leave up to 19 Democratic-held districts vulnerable to be redrawn, according to one voting rights group, but the clock is ticking on how such a decision would impact the 2026 elections.

It would be a quick turnaround for Texas (where potentially five seats could be altered if the VRA is struck down) and North Carolina (one seat) as both states have candidate filing deadlines in December. (And that is setting aside how remarkable it would be for Republicans to return to the drawing board after redrawing the maps in both states in just the past few months.)

The filing deadline in Alabama (two seats) is in January, followed by Mississippi (one seat) and Missouri (one seat) in February, although Republicans have already redrawn the Show Me State map. Filing deadlines in Georgia (two seats), Tennessee (one seat) and South Carolina (one seat) aren’t until March, followed by Florida (three seats) in April and Louisiana (two seats) in July.

In total, it could be quite a haul for House Republicans if the Supreme Court guts the VRA, but the practical reality of redrawing the maps in 10 states under tight time constraints, including three states that just redrew their lines, makes it unlikely.

The bottom line

With less than a year before the midterm elections, the race for the House majority continues to be the marquee fight of 2026. While the national political environment likely needs to deteriorate further for Republicans to lose the Senate, the GOP’s House majority is at risk.

Historical trends and Trump’s slumping job rating are on Democrats’ side, and Republican redistricting efforts haven’t netted the GOP enough seats yet to put the House out of reach.

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