Forecasters said Wednesday that Hurricane Melissa will likely form within 24 hours and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday, with some models showing it even reaching major hurricane strength.

Experts said South Florida should be keeping an eye on the long-range tracking models even though forecasters say the odds of U.S. impact are low.

The system, which was about 305 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Wednesday morning and moving west-northwest at 7 mph, had maximum sustained wind speeds of 50 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

The farther west the storm travels the more likelihood it has of affecting Florida.

Melissa is expected to make a gradual turn in the next few days to the northwest and then north-northwest. The current forecast track has the storm approaching the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica this week.

The track at that point becomes quite murky, the hurricane center said. Some models have the storm whisking north and east, out into the Atlantic, while others suggest it could meander farther west, toward Central America before veering north. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast “cone of uncertainty,” which shows the area of potential tracks over the next five days, is not much more than a circle, indicating very little movement.

The uncertainty about the forecast leaves Florida open to some risk, said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.

“A dip in the jet stream over the Southeast U.S. and strong upper-level winds are expected next week, which should prevent movement toward the Gulf Coast states,” DaSilva said. “The risk of direct impacts on the U.S. is low at this time, but it cannot be ruled out.”

The so-called “spaghetti models,” which are computers that forecast the long-range track of a storm, show Melissa turning sharply to the north and northeast while it is south of Cuba. Where that turn happens will determine the threat level to Florida.

AccuWeather on Wednesday said “the U.S. concern for impacts will be in the Florida Peninsula, especially the lower portion of the Peninsula and the Keys.” AccuWeather also predicted that as the storm meanders in the Caribbean it could bring 12 to 30 inches of rain to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica.

A steering force in the models is the subtropical jet stream, which has dipped into the Gulf.

The jet stream “seems content on parking itself there for the foreseeable future,” wrote WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry on his Eye on the Tropics blog. “Strong upper-level winds associated with this subtropical jet will continue to act as a staunch barrier against would-be threats, tearing apart anything trying to get close to the U.S. coastline.”

Some forecasting models show Melissa reaching major hurricane status — Category 3 or higher — this weekend, with some showing Category 5 strength.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Four hurricanes have formed so far. Of the 13 named Atlantic storms, only Tropical Storm Chantal has made a U.S. landfall.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

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