Tropical Storm Melissa could form in Caribbean, turn north

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 20, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Monday said a Caribbean system has a high chance to form into Tropical Storm Melissa this week, with some forecast paths having it turn north and threaten landfall.

As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea had a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, but still lacked a closed circulation.

“Compared to Sunday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development as the system slows its forward motion,” forecasters said. “A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea.”

Heavy rain and gusty winds could increase over portions of the ABC islands in the southern Caribbean in the next couple of day.

The NHC gave it a 70% chance to develop in the next two days and 90% chance to develop in the next seven.

It would be the 13th cyclone of the season, and if it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.

The long-term forecast models have it shifting from its westward path and turning back north, becoming a potential threat from Jamaica to Puerto Rico. Depending on which path it takes, it could also be of concern to Florida or the Bahamas.

“Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week,” forecasters said.

Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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The National Hurricane Center on Monday said a Caribbean system has a high chance to form into Tropical Storm Melissa this week with some forecast paths having it turn north and threaten landfall.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the tropical wave located in the eastern Caribbean Sea had a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.

“The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slow down over the next few days,” forecasters said. “Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days.”

Heavy rain and gusty winds have subsided for now, but could increase over portions of the ABC islands in the southern Caribbean in the next couple of days.

The NHC gave it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% chance to develop in the next seven.

It would be the 13th cyclone of the season. and if it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.

The long-term forecast models have it shifting from its westward path and turning back north becoming a potential threat from Jamaica to Hispaniola.

Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

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