Hurricane center ups chance Caribbean-bound system will develop

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Oct 19, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center on Sunday increased the chances a Caribbean-bound system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the tropical wave, dubbed Invest 98L, was approaching the Caribbean’s Windward Islands with a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

“Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern CaribbeanSea,” forecasters said. “Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave.”

The system is forecast to slow over the central Caribbean Sea midweek, though.

“Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion of this week,” forecasters said,

The NHC gave it a near 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% chance to develop in the next seven.

If it develops into a named storm, it could become Tropical Storm Melissa.

Of the 12 named storms this year, four have grown into hurricanes, and three of those became major hurricanes. Only one, Tropical Storm Chantal, made a U.S. landfall this year.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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