Experts and former presidents warned that organized crime, narcotrafficking and authoritarian rule are converging into an unprecedented threat to democracy across Latin America as they met during a high-level forum held in Washington, D.C.

The event, titled “Democracy and Organized Crime in Latin America,” on Thursday brought together scholars, diplomats and political figures under the auspices of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy, Florida International University, Universidad Austral, and Infobae.

From the start, the tone was grave. “Organized crime in the region, including the global networks to which it is connected, is the single biggest threat — beyond the People’s Republic of China — to U.S. security and prosperity,” said Professor Evan Ellis, an educator at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute.

Speaking before a packed conference room near Capitol Hill, Ellis said that what was once a regional problem has evolved into a hemispheric crisis, feeding instability, corruption and authoritarianism.

“Organized crime in the region,” he warned, “brings drugs that kill more Americans than virtually any other non-medical cause,” while exploiting migrants and “eroding democratic institutions across Latin America.”

A hemisphere “awash in cocaine”

Ellis described a continent “awash in cocaine,” pointing to soaring coca cultivation in Colombia, Venezuela, and Peru. These illicit economies, he said, fuel cycles of “violence, illegal mining, human trafficking, and massive migration” that are destabilizing entire nations.

He identified a nexus of criminal power stretching from Mexico’s Jalisco Nueva Generación cartel to Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua. These organizations, he said, have capitalized on state weakness and corruption to build transnational networks that move drugs, launder billions, and infiltrate political systems.

“The U.S. cannot view these developments as distant,” Ellis cautioned. “Economic malaise and institutional failure open the door for the capture of power by anti-U.S. populists,” citing Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Bolivia as examples of governments that have curtailed law enforcement cooperation and created “safe havens for criminals.”

Ellis also drew attention to China’s expanding role in the region’s illicit economy. “The PRC is the leading source of precursor chemicals for fentanyl and other synthetic drugs,” he said. “Its banks and companies are used for money laundering, creating new challenges for financial intelligence units.”

He urged a coordinated response involving extradition treaties, financial transparency, and the denial of safe havens to criminal organizations. “It is vital not to permit regimes to continue to serve as sanctuaries for criminal groups,” he concluded.

“Either we act, or we witness the death of democracy”

The forum then turned from academic analysis to the political and personal, as former Ecuadorian president Jamil Mahuad and ex-ambassador to the U.S. Ivonne Baki described how organized crime has infiltrated their own country.

“Ecuador’s nightmare began when Rafael Correa eliminated visa requirements and opened the borders,” Baki said. “He gave the drug trade free rein.”

Baki said President Daniel Noboa’s administration had shown willingness to cooperate with the United States and international partners but warned that the challenge was urgent. “The narcos are organized, and we are not,” she said. “If we don’t act fast and together, it will be too late.”

Mahuad traced Ecuador’s transformation from a relatively peaceful country into one of the most violent in the region, with criminal networks turning coastal ports into export corridors for cocaine. “Ninety percent of the world’s cocaine is produced in Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru,” he said. “Ecuador has become the strategic exit point.”

He argued that successive governments had underestimated the threat by treating narcotrafficking as a social issue rather than a national security emergency. The result, he said, was a weakened state “striking deals with traffickers” instead of confronting them.

His conclusion was stark. “Either we witness the chronicle of the death of democracy in Latin America,” Mahuad warned, “or we believe that the generations condemned to a hundred years of solitude still have a chance on this earth.”

Bolivia’s crossroads

For Eduardo Gamarra, professor of political science at Florida International University, Bolivia illustrates how organized crime can intertwine with political power until the two become indistinguishable.

“For two decades, Bolivia has been governed by a narco-competitive regime,” Gamarra said, referring to the government of former president Evo Morales and his Movement for Socialism (MAS). “The line between the state and the criminal world has vanished.”

From the Chapare region—long the heart of coca cultivation—to the business hub of Santa Cruz, which he described as “a safe haven for illicit organizations,” Bolivia has become “a central node in the global cocaine trade,” Gamarra said. “Where the state is absent, organized crime rules.”

Yet Gamarra also saw signs of change. With the MAS weakened and two center-right candidates competing in an upcoming presidential runoff, he said Bolivia stood at “a historic crossroads.”

“The next administration has the great responsibility to combat this scourge hand in hand with international institutions,” Gamarra said. “The authoritarian structure is dying, but the narcotics network remains alive. Bolivia must act first—replace two decades of narco-politics with sovereign leadership.”

Regional crisis, shared consequences

Ellis’s and Gamarra’s analyses reflected a broader consensus among participants: that the fusion of organized crime and politics represents a new phase of instability in Latin America.

Speakers described a region where the rule of law is eroding, institutions are captured by criminal interests, and illicit economies sustain both authoritarian leaders and violent groups.

The overlap of political and criminal agendas, they argued, has transformed traditional governance challenges into a direct assault on democracy. Countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, they said, have evolved into “narco-states,” where criminal networks operate under state protection.

Participants also highlighted the role of corruption, weak judicial systems, and foreign actors in perpetuating impunity. Without coordinated international action, they warned, the hemisphere risks a generation of entrenched instability.

A call for collective action

Throughout the forum, one message recurred: that the threat facing Latin America is transnational, and that only multilateral cooperation—linking governments, the private sector, and civil society—can counter it.

For Ellis, this means rethinking security partnerships and economic strategies. For Mahuad and Baki, it means rebuilding the moral and institutional foundations of democracy. And for Gamarra, it means replacing regimes that have normalized criminality with ones that restore the rule of law.

All agreed that the window for action is narrowing. “The narcos are organized, and we are not,” Baki’s warning echoed across the session as participants discussed how to prevent further state capture by organized crime.

A region under pressure

The concerns raised at the forum come amid a broader regional surge in violence and political instability. Homicide rates have climbed in Ecuador, Honduras, and Haiti; mass migration continues from Venezuela and Central America; and in several countries, police and military forces have been implicated in drug-related corruption.

Analysts say these developments have not only weakened public confidence in democracy but also created openings for authoritarian leaders who promise order while consolidating control.

Ellis’s reference to China underscored the global dimensions of the crisis. With Beijing expanding its economic footprint in Latin America—through infrastructure projects, energy investments, and trade—U.S. officials and regional experts have warned that criminal networks are exploiting the same channels to launder money and traffic illicit goods.

The growing nexus between state corruption, transnational crime, and great-power competition has made policy coordination increasingly complex, even among allies.

Warnings for Washington

While the forum focused on Latin America, speakers repeatedly emphasized the implications for U.S. national security. Ellis described organized crime as “the single biggest threat—beyond the People’s Republic of China—to U.S. security and prosperity,” linking narcotrafficking to the domestic fentanyl crisis and border instability.

The flow of drugs, money, and people across the hemisphere, he added, is not only reshaping Latin American politics but also reaching deep into American society.

“Economic malaise and institutional failure open the door for the capture of power by anti-U.S. populists,” he said, warning that democratic backsliding abroad will eventually reverberate at home.

The fight ahead

By the forum’s close, participants returned to the same question that had opened the day: whether democracies in the Americas can withstand the combined pressures of crime, corruption, and authoritarianism.

The answer, most agreed, will depend on political will. Renewed cooperation, transparency and judicial reform were repeatedly cited as essential. So were citizen engagement and accountability, which speakers said are being eroded by fear, apathy, and disinformation.

Despite the grim outlook, there was also a sense of determination. “It is vital not to permit regimes to continue to serve as sanctuaries for criminal groups,” Ellis said. Mahuad, invoking García Márquez’s famous line, offered a note of hope: that Latin America’s generations “still have a chance on this earth.”

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