Atlantic system has gale-force winds, but chances drop to develop, hurricane center says

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Jun 23, 2025

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The National Hurricane Center pulled back from its forecast Monday that a system in the Atlantic would develop into the season’s first tropical depression or storm.

As of its 2 p.m. Eastern time tropical outlook, the NHC said that while the low-pressure system located about 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda had gale-force winds, its shower and thunderstorm activity remained disorganized.

“Environmental conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm (by Monday night),” forecasters said.

The NHC lowered the chance it would develop in the next 48 hours down to 60% from an earlier forecast of 70%.

If it does spin up into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Andrea. But if it does, the NHC says it will be short-lived.

“By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development,” forecasters said.

The system is headed to the northeast at 10-15 mph and will remain over the open central Atlantic, with no threat to land.

In most years, the Atlantic hurricane season has generated at least one storm by this time, more than three weeks into hurricane season. It’s the latest since 2014 that tropical activity hasn’t bred a tracked system. That year, the first tropical depression didn’t form until June 30.

Between 2015 to 2024, though, the first tracked system had already formed by June 1, the first official day of hurricane season.

Despite the late start, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above-normal by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The agency predicts 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

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