Iran strikes risk dividing GOP at crucial time for Trump agenda

Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to strike Iran’s key nuclear sites on Saturday notably sidelined Congress just as he needs Republicans lawmakers to unite around one thing he can’t do without them: Pass his legislative agenda.

Senate Republicans are still planning to move ahead this week with votes on Trump’s massive tax and spending bill, Stacey Daniels, a spokeswoman for Majority Leader John Thune, said Sunday.

The ambitious schedule could help Thune keep his fragile coalition intact by not giving much time for isolationists to hijack Trump’s bill to make points on executive power and U.S. involvement overseas, particularly if it becomes a more prolonged military campaign.

The idea of using the American military and weaponry to bomb Iran had divided wings of Trump’s MAGA base in the days before the strike, with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Senator Rand Paul and Representatives Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene facing off against the GOP’s hawks, including Senators Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham.

The White House took pains after the attack to avoid angering Trump’s “America First” supporters who elected him and many other Republicans on a pledge to avoid involving the U.S. in military entanglements overseas. The Iran strike, the administration stressed, was targeted and won’t involve US troops on the ground.

“The mission was not, has not, been about regime change,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters Saturday evening. “The president authorized a precision operation to neutralize the threats to our national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program.”

By late Sunday, however, Trump was signaling that the U.S. could be in for the long haul in Iran.

“It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’ but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Republican reaction to the strikes has been overwhelmingly positive so far, with some in the party stressing this was not the sort of full-scale invasion like the lengthy wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. It’s not clear that unity will survive, however, if Trump follows through on his threat to bomb more targets if Iran retaliates or doesn’t negotiate a deal.

“Just remember: every regime change war has been extremely popular at the start,” former Representative Matt Gaetz, a Trump ally, said Sunday on X. “But the historical trajectory isn’t good.”

Trump has long kept his party in line either by haranguing detractors on social media or wielding his popularity with base Republican voters to threaten costly primaries.

Last weekend, before the Iran operation, two Trump political officials, Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, launched a political action committee called Kentucky MAGA to try and oust Massie, who opposed Trump’s signature legislation, according to a person familiar with the matter. Massie said the Iran strike was not “constitutional.”

As much as the move is to hammer Massie for breaking ranks with the party leader as the GOP contends with narrow margins, it’s a salvo to others about the perils of crossing Trump.

Greene also opposed the strike, blaming Israel for starting the war and criticizing Trump’s decision to strike. It’s unclear whether the Georgia Republican, typically among the president’s most vocal supporters, will face the same kind of political repercussions as Massie.

“American troops have been killed and forever torn apart physically and mentally for regime change, foreign wars, and for military industrial base profits,” she posted on X. “I’m sick of it.”

War Powers

Massie has already cosponsored legislation with Democrats to bar the president from engaging in further military action in Iran without getting congressional approval.

On Saturday night, he publicly criticized Speaker Mike Johnson for not giving the House time to debate and vote on whether to authorize involving the U.S. in another war.

“Why didn’t you call us back from vacation to vote on military action if there was a serious threat to our country?” he asked Johnson in a response on X.

For Trump and Republicans, the strike on Iran presents wider risks as the 2026 midterms increasingly come into focus.

The president’s calculation is unfolding against the backdrop of a fragile economy shaken by Trump’s helter-skelter rollout of global tariffs, even though they’re paused until July 9. Turmoil in the Middle East heightens the uncertainty, including the risk of a jump in oil prices that would hurt US consumers.

If Iran chokes off the Strait of Hormuz, a thoroughfare for a fifth of crude shipments, oil could soar to $130 per barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics — a scenario of a gloomier economy that could be punishing for Republicans in 2026.

Many Democrats, meanwhile, criticized Trump’s strikes, warning they risk a wider war and didn’t have congressional approval, with influential Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez among a few who even suggested Trump committed an impeachable offense.

But Congress has for years been reluctant to take politically risky votes on war authorizations.

Many lawmakers felt burned after voting for open-ended authorizations to use military force in 2001 and 2002 after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and ahead of the Iraq war. In the decades since, presidents have bombed numerous countries, including President Barack Obama’s strikes on Libya in 2011 that helped lead to the end of that regime, without congressional authorization.

Trump, who has routinely steamrolled Congress as he pushes to expand executive branch power, essentially has free rein on the Iran campaign — at least for now.

But votes are likely at some point on reining in the president via the War Powers Act, particularly after Trump threatened more attacks. Even with some expected fractures in his party, he’d likely win enough Democratic support to win those votes.

Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Representative Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the chamber’s former No. 2 Democrat, have already supported the strike.

Hegseth said the administration had followed the notification protocols required by law, informing congressional leaders once the aircraft that bombed Iran were clear of the country’s airspace.

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(With assistance from Mario Parker.)