Nationalist wins Poland's presidency in setback for EU ties

A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump won Poland’s presidential election, defeating the centrist mayor of Warsaw and complicating efforts to shift the nation back into the European Union mainstream.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk must now navigate an increasingly polarized political landscape after the right-wing Law & Justice party maintained its grip on the presidency.

In the 19 months of his premiership, Tusk’s efforts to restore the independence of the courts and loosen the tightest abortion law in the E.U. have been stalled by the incumbent nationalist president, a deadlock that’s taken a toll on his governing coalition.

The ascent of Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and one-time boxer with scant political experience, also registers a rare win for Trump’s MAGA movement. Trump allies have attempted and failed to tip elections in favor of nationalist or far-right forces in countries including Germany, Romania, Canada and Australia.

Nawrocki won 50.9% in Sunday’s ballot, while Rafal Trzaskowski, a liberal who made his second attempt to seize the presidency from Law & Justice, took 49.1%, according to the results released by the electoral commission early on Monday.

In months of campaigning, 42-year-old Nawrocki managed to erase what had been a formidable lead by Trzaskowski, a close ally of the prime minister. When the voting ended on Sunday, Nawrocki dismissed an early exit poll that showed his rival in the lead, declaring that he would pull through.

“We will save Poland,” Nawrocki told supporters late Sunday. “We will not allow Donald Tusk to hold all the power and have a monopoly of evil power that does not care about public finances — power that takes away our big dreams and takes away our aspirations.”

An energized Law & Justice — and a surge in far-right forces — risk exposing further cracks in Tusk’s fractious three-way coalition. The prime minister may call a vote of confidence in his government as early as this week, Onet.pl website reported Monday, citing a ruling party official it didn’t name. Tusk will give a TV address to the nation at 8 p.m. in Warsaw.

Jakub Jaworowski, Tusk’s minister of state assets, said the result will likely add to “elevated instability” in an increasingly fraught geopolitical environment.

“It has been difficult, but it will be now even harder,” Jaworowski said Monday at a congress in the northern Polish city of Sopot.

Party leaders in the coalition will meet on Monday, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia told reporters and dismissed the talk about a confidence vote as “unnecessary theatrics.”

Polish markets

The outcome risks undercutting assets in the E.U.’s fifth-largest economy, which have broadly rallied since Tusk’s alliance won power in late 2023, ousting the nationalists. Warsaw’s WIG20 stock index has jumped 61% in dollar terms since the last parliamentary election, while government bonds returned 28%, most among emerging markets after South Africa and Thailand.

The zloty weakened as much as half a percent against the euro in early Monday trading before trading 0.2% lower at 4.2582 per euro at 2:48 p.m. in Warsaw.

The narrow margin laid bare the divisions that have gripped the nation of 37 million. The two candidates called for a hard line against Russian aggression — an issue that has broad consensus in Poland — but sharply disagreed on issues such as migration, abortion and European integration.

While Trzaskowski enjoyed strong backing in Warsaw and Poland’s bigger cities, the rural vote and support in smaller towns were crucial in shaping the outcome.

Despite booming economy and rising living standards, Nawrocki has tapped into many rural voters’ fears about increased migration while playing into their sense of national pride — which they see threatened by progressive trends from the European Union and Prime Minister Tusk.

Poland is one of the E.U.’s fastest-growing economies and biggest spenders on defense and the setback for Tusk’s government is likely to reverberate across the bloc, which is under mounting pressure from Trump’s tariffs and Russia’s threat to the east.

Nawrocki’s campaign had won the backing of the White House, where he briefly met Trump in the Oval Office last month. On a visit to Poland last week, US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem held out the prospect of close ties with Trump as an incentive to vote for Nawrocki — and dismissed Trzaskowski as “an absolute train-wreck of a leader.”

Coalition divisions

Tusk sought to position Poland as a key player in the E.U., especially as it seeks to ramp up support for neighboring Ukraine, and to restore women’s rights. But his program has faced obstacles because of divisions within the coalition and the threat of vetoes by the incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, who also hails from the Law & Justice.

Tusk’s surprise election victory in 2023 had offered the promise that Poland would be able to restore the rule of law and bolster independent media, which had been weakened during eight years of nationalist rule.

The most immediate problem for Tusk may be how to reinforce the independence of judges. His plans for judicial reform were crucial in persuading the E.U. to release tens of billions in funding. But the final legislation has been held up by Duda, who threatened to block it.

The two candidates encapsulated the nation’s divide: Trzaskowski, the polyglot son of a jazz musician, against Nawrocki, who heads the Institute for National Remembrance, which investigates Nazi and communist-era crimes.

A political newcomer, Nawrocki spent the campaign touting his core Catholic values while railing against migration and the E.U.’s attempts to fight climate change. His campaign was hit by allegations over a property purchase from an elderly seller and his participation in arranged fights between soccer hooligans. He also ruled out Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

The turnout was 71.6%, compared with a record 74.4% during parliamentary elections two years ago and 68.2% in the last presidential runoff in 2020.

While political power is held by the prime minister, Poland’s president can veto bills, nominate the central bank governor and lead the country’s armed forces. The head of state is elected to a five-year term and is limited to two terms.

“The victory is unquestionably unambiguous,” Duda, who hands the presidency to Nawrocki on Aug. 6, told reporters in Vilnius. Polish voters support the continuation of policy that includes “building Poland’s close relations with the United States and basing our security on it,” he said.

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—With assistance from Piotr Bujnicki, Deana Kjuka, Wojciech Moskwa, Konrad Krasuski and Natalia Ojewska.