Analysis: Triumphant Trump rolls dice on tariffs despite warnings, risks
Published in News & Features
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump did not blink Wednesday while resurrecting an economic policy approach last used 95 years ago, a move that will shape his second term and help decide the fate of his “Make America Great Again” movement.
“My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day,” Trump said at a Rose Garden event to announce sweeping tariffs — one purposely scheduled after U.S. stock markets had closed. “Foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream.
“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” he said, using his campaign trail rhetoric to try selling a contentious policy. “American steelworkers, autoworkers, farmers and skilled craftsmen … they really suffered gravely.”
After months of threats, Trump formally declared a national emergency on trade while also implementing “baseline tariffs” of 10% on goods from all countries and “reciprocal” import fees for items from countries deemed the “worst offenders” on trade practices, a senior White House official told reporters Wednesday. The latter category will be implemented on a country-by-country basis for about 60 countries.
The import fees, Trump contended, would end America’s “unilateral economic surrender” and fuel an economic “transformation” at home.
Wednesday’s gathering, at times, had the feel of a “College GameDay” venue, only for mercantilist economic populism, with invited trade workers wearing hard hats, some of them hooting and pumping their fists, and nine large American flags hanging along the West Wing colonnade. A beige hawk hovered overhead like a mascot. Music blared before Trump arrived. All that was missing was ESPN anchor Rece Davis reading a dramatic introduction before declaring with zeal, “Welcome to ‘Liberation Day!’”
But just like for a home team hosting the popular football pregame show, a Rose Garden event with pomp and circumstance does not guarantee victory. Consider the 1930 law known as the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, which hiked tariffs on a laundry list of goods — and has been blamed for helping trigger the Great Depression. Its Republican authors, Rep. Willis Hawley of Oregon and Sen. Reed Smoot of Utah, were both ousted in 1932 by voters upset by economic pain.
“This is likely to significantly escalate ongoing trade tensions with other countries, including in Europe and the Asia Pacific. Major trading nations are likely to impose responsive tariffs, risking further disruption to trade and economic stability globally,” analysts at Dragonfly, a private intelligence service, wrote in a Wednesday email.
‘Who could argue?’
Similar instability is expected at home — Trump has described what’s anticipated as “pain” for an unspecified amount of time for U.S. consumers and businesses. Still, the senior White House official said Wednesday after explaining the fees, “Who could argue with that?”
North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has been warning that his state, and others where the agriculture and agribusiness industries are a major economic driver, will take a hard hit.
“Mexico concerns me the least … but China concerns me because of retaliation and access to markets,” he said recently, referring to America’s top trading partners.
“I do think the president will have the patience of the people who elected him. But that can only go so far,” Tillis, who faces a competitive reelection next year, added as he headed to a floor vote. “Particularly in agriculture … they’re already hurting because the Democrats couldn’t get us to a farm bill in the last Congress. So they’ve already got a lot of uncertainty. This just adds to it.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that retirees worried that their 401(k) accounts could take massive hits had “legitimate concerns.” The tariffs are part of Trump’s push, she said, “to protect future generations of the senior citizens … to ensure that there are jobs here In the United States of America for their children.”
To be sure, Trump campaigned on imposing tariffs on goods from other countries — but he didn’t suggest they would be this broad in scope. Nor did he run on a total overhaul, as Leavitt alluded to Tuesday, of the entire American economy.
Former President Joe Biden left office boasting about a relatively low unemployment rate. But moves by Trump and Elon Musk to gut federal agencies and try to fire tens of thousands of government workers risk creating new unemployment.
Although prices had remained high, Biden administration officials often noted that the inflation rate had cooled. Most economists, and even some GOP lawmakers, acknowledge that tariffs historically have been inflationary.
“They’re not going to be wrong. It is going to work,” Leavitt said Tuesday of Trump’s pro-tariff advisers. “And the president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades. … And we are focused on restoring the Golden Age of America.”
Translation: Just trust us.
‘We made a mistake’
Some congressional Republicans in recent days have not sounded very sure that anyone should.
“In Article 1 in the Constitution, really, tariffs should be a congressionally initiated action. So, really, this should come from Congress,” Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, who represents an Omaha-area swing district, told CNN on Thursday. “However, I think we made a mistake in the past. We passed legislation that gave the president some temporary tariff authorities. And I think we should look back and restore that power back to Congress.”
Lawmakers and administration officials have said the economic impacts would be felt quickly, by American consumers and foreign entities alike.
As always, the focus about what happens next will be squarely on Trump — and he would have it no other way. And, as often happens in any White House, mixed messages emerged.
“Now those conversations can begin. If other leaders want to propose something, (Trump will) pick up the phone and talk,” a White House spokesperson, granted anonymity to be candid, told a reporter Wednesday morning. “He’s always eager to make a deal, and he’s always said these tariffs are reciprocal. So, if they want to lower theirs, that’s great. That’s what this is all about.”
But the senior White House official hours later signaled the opposite, saying, “This is a national emergency, this is not a negotiation.”
That’s a big bet, politically and economically.
‘Inflection point’
At a House Rules hearing Monday, Massachusetts Rep. Jim McGovern, the top Democrat on the panel, said the economy was “crumbling because of Trump’s erratic obsession with tariffs.”
“What are my Republican colleagues doing? Are they focused on fixing things or making Americans’ lives better in any way? Of course not,” he said.
Analysts at Morningstar DBRS, in a white paper this week, also laid out the risks for Trump — and the country.
“If implemented, these tariffs could disrupt supply chain management, pressure margins, and challenge operations for pharmaceutical companies,” according to Morningstar DBRS. “These challenges may affect companies’ strategic investment decisions, including research and development spends and trade policies, in a period of relatively high market uncertainty.”
But at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. on Wednesday, the atmosphere was jubilant. When a reporter asked a question about another issue, the White House spokesperson replied, “We’re all about ‘Liberation Day’ today,” as other aides cheered, before calling Trump’s move to toss the modern presidential economic playbook out the window “the definition of the ‘art of the deal.’”
“We are choosing to take a new path on global trade, to reshape it,” the White House spokesperson said. “This is an inflection point for our country.”
The same goes for the MAGA movement in the face of what polls show is an unpopular decision to take money from Americans’ pockets and retirement accounts.
“We have an opportunity to level the playing field, restore the (trade) balance. That’s what you’re going to see today, I believe,” Kelly Loeffler, the head of the Small Business Administration and a former Georgia senator, said Wednesday on Fox Business, before echoing many lawmakers and economists on what happens next: “I don’t know.”
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