Tropical Storm Helene forms, forecast to hit Florida as major hurricane

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Helene formed Tuesday morning in the Caribbean, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts it to move north and strike Florida as a major Category 3 hurricane on Thursday night.

In its 8 p.m. Eastern time advisory, the system’s center was located in the northwest Caribbean Sea about 115 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and 145 miles south of the western tip of Cuba with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, as increase from 50 mph at 5 p.m., as it moved west-northwest at 12 mph.

“It is going to be a big storm, and by big I mean not intensity, I mean size,” said NHC Deputy Director Jaime Rhome on Tuesday. “And big storms cause big problems. And that’s one of the take-home messages that I need you to understand.”

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, while a storm surge warning is in place for Indian Pass south to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Surge will bring up to 15 feet above normal levels near the storm’s landfall, but also dangerous levels all up the Gulf Coast.

“It’s going to push a big swath of storm surge across the western portions of the Florida peninsula,” he said. “This area is really, really vulnerable to storm surge. It’s not going to take a lot of wind, and even tropical-storm-force winds along the Florida West Coast produce significant and life-threatening storm surge.”

The intensity forecast calls for the system to grow into a hurricane Wednesday and strengthen into a major hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds and 140 mph gusts before landfall on Florida’s Big Bend on Thursday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 175 miles, and forecasters expect that to grow to as much as 250 miles.

“Storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” said NHC Warning Coordination Meteorologist Robbie Berg. “In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”

For Florida, a hurricane watch is also in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas, Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and from Flamingo to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay.

Inland tropical storm warnings were issued for most of Central Florida including Lake, Marion, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Sumter counties while tropical storm watches were issued for inland Brevard and Volusia counties.

A tropical storm watch was also issued for Lake Okeechobee and from the Palm Beach/Martin County line northward to the Savannah River in Georgia.

Rhome noted tropical storm warnings and watches extending basically around the entire state, and now creeping into the rest of the southeastern U.S.

“The wind swath is going to be huge with this system, and it’s basically going to carve a path right over a good portion of the Florida peninsula, including the highly populated I-4 corridor,” he said. “So if you’re watching from Tampa and Orlando, you’re going to have a big wind event with this, no matter where it goes with respect to the track.”

The storm’s center has a likely target of the Big Bend, similar to this year’s Hurricane Debby and 2023’s Hurricane Idalia, with a tighter cone of uncertainty 48 hours out from landfall that ranges from near Cedar Key up to Panama City.

“All indications are a significant hurricane impacting the Florida Big Bend, but, and this is a big but, the hazards are going to be well removed from the center and well removed from the cone,” Rhome said. “So I don’t want you to look at the cone and say, ‘I’m out of the cone,’ or ‘I’m on the edge of the cone,’ because this wind field, the wind field with this system, is going to be really large — larger than you’re used to seeing with a traditional hurricane.”

The NHC warned surge and high tide could lead to 10-15 feet above normal from the Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka, from 6-10 feet from Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River, 5-10 feet from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 5-8 feet from the Anclote River to the middle of Longboat Key and Tampa Bay, 4-7 feet from the middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, and 3-5 feet from Englewood to Flamingo and Charlotte Harbor.

Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency order Monday for 41 of Florida’s 67 counties, and increased that to 61 on Tuesday. He said during a press conference Tuesday morning that the state also asked for pre-landfall declaration from FEMA. President Biden approved the federal disaster assistance that authorizes FEMA to coordinate all disaster relief efforts for 28 of Florida’s counties

DeSantis said the NHC had never in its history had a forecast for a major hurricane for a system that had yet to even form, which was the case when it was just Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine earlier Tuesday.

“I think it’s because there’s some similarities to the track that was taken (by 2018’s Category 5) Hurricane Michael, and I think the thought is that when it’s over the Gulf, especially the more north it goes, rather than east, it has a chance to have a rapid intensification,” DeSantis said. “So we, as always, we prepare for the worst, we hope for the best, but we’d rather be prepared and then have it not reach that level, than just hope that it doesn’t intensify and then be caught not being prepared.”

He said Florida residents still have time Tuesday and early Wednesday to prepare, fill gas tanks, get water and nonperishable food, clean up yards for potential debris and know evacuation zones.

“Right now, regardless of how it forms or the speed right now, you do have time, so take advantage of that time,” he said.

He said more than 18,000 utility linemen are prepped to respond to expected power outages from the hurricane. He also said the state has SpaceX Starlink internet hardware available to deploy if needed to targeted areas. And just as the state deployed in this year’s Hurricane Debby, which also targeted the Big Bend, the state has new flood protection devices primarily for use to protect utility substations.

There are 3,000 Florida National Guard soldiers ready to assist with post-storm assistance as well as Florida State Guard, Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission and county sheriff’s office personnel.

“These resources are being added by the minute, so you’re going to continue to have more linemen brought in. You’re going to continue to have more beef added to these staging areas,” DeSantis said. “We’ll continue to watch the forecast, watch how this develops, see what the time frame is going to be, but we’re going to get something, that’s for sure.”

Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said the state expanded its county disaster declaration because of the expected size of the storm.

“This hurricane will have tropical-storm-force winds in excess of 250 miles from the center,” Guthrie said. “That will encompass most of the peninsula from the Space Coast all the way through the First Coast and then on the west coast of Florida, the entire coastal portion of the west coast of Florida.”

DeSantis urged residents to listen to local evacuation orders, and avoid the tragedy seen in 2022’s Hurricane Ian that killed 149 people in Florida, most of whom were caught in major storm surge in southwest Florida. He said evacuation doesn’t have to be far, but they do need to get out from the danger zone.

“Most of the evacuations from the low-lying areas, people do not need to even leave their county. In most instances, it’s just getting away from when that water comes, and then as soon as the storm passes, you go out, and hopefully you don’t have major damage,” he said. “But the reality is that water, when you’re there, that’s tough. The wind you can hide from. Anything that’s shelter in Florida is going to be able to withstand the wind, but it’s the water that can be really, really devastating if you remain there when you’re told to evacuate.”

Its immediate threat in the Caribbean also means a hurricane warning is in effect for Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico and a hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio with a tropical storm warning in place for Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico and the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

Rain over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands could see as much as 12 inches in some places with as much as 8 inches over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula with a risk of considerable flooding. Storm surge up to 4 feet is a threat for parts of Cuba and Mexico.

For Florida, the potential for heavy rains and increased winds is increasing from Wednesday night through Friday.

The NHC said 4-8 inches with some areas getting 12 inches could fall in parts of Florida and the southeastern United States.

National Weather Service Melbourne meteorologist Scott Kelly said the storm looks to have a large wind field once it matures extending far to the east of its center.

“While it is too early to describe specific impacts for east Central Florida, heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds are becoming an increasing concern,” Kelly said. “A few tornadoes will also be possible in the rainbands.”

More rainfall for the Florida peninsula could follow over the weekend after the system has passed through, which is a flooding concern with ground that may have just been deeply saturated already, he said.

The NHC predicts tropical-storm-force winds could arrive to South Florida by 8 p.m. Wednesday and into Central Florida by 8 a.m. Thursday.

Already Orange, Lake, Osceola and Volusia counties opted to cancel classes on Thursday, while NASA and SpaceX delayed their planned launch of the Crew-9 mission to the International Space Station until at least Saturday.

The NHC was tracking a second system in the eastern Atlantic that also has a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC’s 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the broad low-pressure system located west of the Cape Verde Islands was producing more concentrated shower and thunderstorm activity since Monday.

“Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to develop in the next two days and 80% in the next seven.

The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list is Isaac.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, with the height of hurricane development running from mid-August into October.

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